Following a background deal between the European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and Renew after the European Parliament elections on 9 June, the European Council has re-nominated Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission. In the Council vote, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán voted against von der Leyen. A poll by Hungarian think tank Nézőpont Institute showed that a majority of Hungarians agree with Orbán: 51 per cent of those polled do not support the re-election of Ursula von der Leyen, while only 26 per cent are in favour of her continuing as president.
The vote will take place on Thursday, 18 July, the third day of the European Parliament’s plenary session, and von der Leyen will need at least 361 votes to secure the presidency. As Nézőpont Institute writes in its analysis, the success of the vote will largely depend on the unity of the political groups nominating the candidate. From a Hungarian perspective, it is particularly important how the opposition Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar—which recently joined the EPP—and the S&D-affiliated Democratic Coalition (DK) MEPs vote. ‘This important personal decision could be a turning point in Hungarian domestic politics, not only because of the cooperation between the two parties, but also because of their support,’ they wrote.
According to the analysis, the Tisza Party may face the biggest dilemma
in the vote on the Commission President, as it has to choose between loyalty to the EPP and the majority Hungarian position that wants to replace von der Leyen. Additionally, there is no unanimity among Péter Magyar’s own supporters, with 49 per cent in favour of von der Leyen’s re-election, 19 per cent against, and 32 per cent having no opinion on the matter.
Hungarian governing party Fidesz voters are much more united in this respect, with 79 per cent rejecting von der Leyen and only 6 per cent supporting the current president’s second term.
Von der Leyen’s rejection is not at all surprising, given that she has taken several decisions unfavourable to Hungary in order to exert political pressure. Nézőpont Institute points out that von der Leyen’s position is completely at odds with that of the Hungarian government on issues such as war, migration, and gender. Additionally, she has just announced a commission boycott of the Hungarian EU presidency in response to the Hungarian prime minister’s peace mission.
Meloni Could be the Kingmaker
Although in theory von der Leyen would have the 361 votes needed with the support of the EPP, S&D, and Renew, according to POLITICO, as many as 15 percent of the MEPs who are expected to support her might not do so. This is where Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who was left out of the background deal mentioned at the beginning of the article, could prevent von der Leyen from winning a second mandate.
Meloni leads the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, which holds 78 seats, making it the fourth largest political group in the European Parliament after Patriots for Europe. These MEPs could be crucial for von der Leyen, however, Meloni has ruled out ordering her group to back the German official for a second term. After what von der Leyen described as an ‘intense hour’ of talks with the ECR group on Tuesday, it remains unclear which way they will vote. Different parties within the group, representing a variety of countries, are likely to make their own decisions.
In both cases, Meloni is in a difficult position:
Italy’s interests dictate that it should align itself with mainstream EP political groups to support von der Leyen, to secure a strong portfolio for the Italian commissioner in the next Commission. On the other hand, such a decision would alienate her own voters and those of the ECR, who are disillusioned with the EU leadership precisely because of similar background deals.
If von der Leyen is not elected, the European Council will have to nominate another candidate. According to press reports, there is currently no Plan B in place for this contingency.
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