According to a report by the Nézőpont Institute, released on Monday, 69 per cent of Hungarians find it outrageous that Ukraine seeks to limit oil shipments to Hungary and Slovakia, while 77 per cent expect Brussels to mediate between the parties. Last week, the European Commission, which was recently re-elected with the support of the Hungarian left, among others, announced that it does not intend to assist the member states involved.
In their analysis of the survey Nézőpont Institute highlighted that the war between Ukraine and Russia appears to have been escalating in August, as Ukraine, which was attacked by Russia two and a half years ago, launched an offensive against Russian territories this summer. As part of the increasing tensions, the Kyiv government declared its intention to partially halt the transit of Russian crude oil through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia. Although this measure does not threaten fuel supplies in Hungary and Slovakia, it is particularly surprising given the assistance both countries have provided to Ukraine.
The Nézőpont Institute’s survey found that 69 per cent of Hungarians consider Ukraine’s imposed sanctions unacceptable, while 22 per cent view them as acceptable. Even among voters of the Democratic Coalition (DK) and the Tisza Party, a relative majority—47 per cent—disapprove of Ukraine’s actions, though both parties’ supporters are divided: 39 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, find the Ukrainian sanctions acceptable. This division reflects the ambivalent relationship between the left-wing parties and their voters concerning issues of sovereignty.
Ukraine’s decision represents a unilateral violation of a bilateral international agreement,
a matter which has not disturbed the Brussels elite, known for their sensitivity to the rule of law. The European Commission decided last week that since Ukraine’s sanctions do not endanger Hungary’s and Slovakia’s energy security Brussels does not intend to mediate between the parties. By this decision the Commission, recently re-elected with the votes of the DK and Tisza Party’s MEPs, has not only breached its contractual obligations but has also failed to meet the expectations of the Hungarian people.
When asked whether the European Union should intervene to resolve the dispute over oil shipments, 77 per cent of Hungarians responded affirmatively, while only 16 per cent opposed intervention. Among Tisza Party supporters, 68 per cent, and among DK voters, 58 per cent shared this view, according to the Nézőpont Institute.
In Hungarian public discourse the possibility has also been raised that Hungary could respond to the oil sanctions by withholding electricity supplies to Ukraine. However, this option currently lacks overwhelming support: 47 per cent of Hungarians would find such a countermeasure acceptable, while 42 per cent would not. The ongoing fuel supply ensured by reserves and trust in Hungary’s diplomatic efforts likely contribute to the public’s cautious stance on retaliatory measures. However, the mood could easily shift in the absence of an agreement, and given the strong opposition to Ukrainian sanctions, similar levels of support for retaliatory actions could emerge, the Nézőpont Institute concluded in their poll conducted between 29 and 31 July on a sample of 1,000 people surveyed by telephone.
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