We have entered the last 30 days leading up to the 2024 US presidential election between Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. As the race stands right now, as of the time of writing this—and it is important to stress this, as betting odds can change by the hour—Donald Trump has a very slight edge over Harris, according to bookmakers and trading markets.
In fact, in a very odd turn of events, all major international bookmakers offer the same odds for the two candidates’ victories. You can bet on both Trump and Harrris becoming the 47th POTUS at exactly 1.91 odds at the British betting sites Bet365, William Hill, PaddyPower, SkyBet, and BetFred. Interestingly, this means that they give both candidates an over 50-per-cent chance for victory, as 1.91 European-style decimal odds translates to a 52.4 per cent chance in percentages. However, bookmakers are not trying to give an exact percentage chance of an event happening, they are offering odds which can make them a profit.
As for the bettors themselves, they have a clear favourite. 58.5 per cent of bets have been placed on President Trump so far across the major international sportsbooks, according to Oddscheker.com’s numbers. Meanwhile, Vice President Harris has only received 25.25 per cent of the bets in the US presidential election winner market, with Former First Lady Michelle Obama also receiving 5.1 per cent, Robert F. Kennedy Jr getting 3.05 per cent, California Governor Gavin Newsom getting 2 per cent, and miscellaneous other potential candidates getting the rest of the pie.
‘As for the bettors themselves, they have a clear favourite. 58.5 per cent of bets have been placed on President Trump so far’
The Costa Rica-based sportsbook Bovada, which has a larger share of American users on its platforms, shows Donald Trump as the more likely winner, with -115 odds in American moneyline-style, which equals to 1.87 odds in decimal and 53.5 per cent in percentage. Harris has -105 odds (1.91) on the same platform, implying a 51.2 per cent chance for her victory.
Polymarket operates differently from traditional sportsbooks, as the site itself does not set the odds. Rather, it is the users who are trading ‘yes’ and ‘no’ options in markets also opened by users at custom prices. According to the traders on the world’s largest decentralized prediction market platform, Donald Trump has a 50.8 per cent chance to win the election, as opposed to Harris’ 48.4 per cent.
However, users on the same platform also give very little chance for Donald Trump to win the popular vote, only a little over 1:4, 26 per cent.
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