Ahead of the 2024 US presidential election, the European poll aggregator and election analysis site EuropeElects.eu published an interesting compilation. They collected polling data on the preference of voters of the two major US presidential candidates, Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party and Donald Trump of the Republican Party, in European countries. Polls were included from firms such as Gallup, Verian, and Ipsos.
Although it is not specified which pollster surveyed which country, in the case of Hungary, no surprise was found. Hungarians would have favoured President Trump overwhelmingly over Vice President Kamala Harris. The difference in favour of Trump was 24 points (62 to 38 per cent). Interestingly, that is an even wider margin than what Fidesz–KDNP won by in the 2022 Hungarian parliamentary election, which was a still substantial 19.69 points.
A 24-point difference would be one of the most lopsided victories in the popular vote in US presidential elections. It would rank 10th out of the 60 elections held so far; and seventh if we exclude the three largest margins, when the winning candidate ran unopposed (George Washington in 1788 and 1792; and James Monroe in 1820).
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of Hungary and President Donald Trump have a famously cordial relationship with each other, thus the Hungarian voters’ preference really is no surprise. PM Orbán has publicly backed the 45th and 47th POTUS multiple times, even in turbulent times such as after his indictments, convictions, and assassination attempts. He has repeatedly made the case that peace can only come in the Russo–Ukrainian war if Donald Trump is re-elected. In turn, President Trump has repeatedly praised PM Orbán on the campaign trail, calling him a ‘strong leader’ and ‘a tough, smart man’.
President Trump also hosted Viktor Orbán at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida twice this year already, and called him after his election victory as well.
So, President Trump is very popular in Hungary, unlike in Denmark, where a whopping 96 per cent of voters would have supported Vice President Harris, with him only receiving 4 per cent of the vote.
In Germany, he would have done a little better, getting 15 per cent against Harris’ 85 per cent. Meanwhile, in Russia, Donald Trump is even more popular than in Hungary, polling at 78 per cent, while Harris is at 22 per cent.
Atlas Intel has just released a similar set of polling data, although it is a post-election analysis. The São Paulo, Brazil-based polling firm should be paid a lot of attention to, given they were the most accurate pollster for a national US election for the third time in a row. In their final poll, released a day before the election, they had Trump up 1.1 points in the full field and up 1.2 points head-to-head over Harris. President Trump ended up winning the popular vote by 1.5 points.
Atlas Intel polls voters on the American continent. In their new survey, they found 52 per cent of people have reacted positively to Donald Trump’s victory in their native country of Brazil, while 36 per cent have reacted negatively. In Mexico, these numbers are 34 per cent positive and 43 per cent negative. In Argentina, where President Javier Milei is aligned with President Trump, similarly to Viktor Orbán, 48 per cent are happy with the 2024 US presidential election results, while 24 per cent are not.
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