6 November 2016! It was a historic day that marked an inflection point in the history of the world. European bureaucrats considered it an aberration, a one-off event that was unlikely to repeat itself. That is why Brussels never tried to understand the first election of President Donald Trump.
This was so not the least because understanding the reasons that brought President Trump to the White House would have meant recognizing their own failures. Hence, they brushed off his election as a mistake that would fix itself in 2020. Despite their wishful thinking, President Trump received even more in the two subsequent elections. More importantly, the winds of change reached European shores not long after his 2016 US presidential election.
In Italy, Lega Nord led by Matteo Salvini jumped from 4.3 per cent in the 2013 national elections to 17.6 per cent in 2018, and to 34.3 per cent in the 2019 European elections. In 2022, Fratelli d’Italia garnered 26 per cent of the vote in 2022, while the centre-right government obtained approximately 44 per cent, making Georgia Meloni prime minister. In other European countries, conservative and right-wing parties went from very low, single digit levels to becoming significant political forces.
For instance, in France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally increased its vote share dramatically in presidential elections, moving from around 10 per cent in 2007 to nearly 24 per cent in 2022 and to being the largest party currently. Similarly, in Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) rose from 4.7 per cent in the 2013 federal elections to 12.6 per cent in 2017, becoming the third largest party in the Bundestag, and now aspiring to cementing its second place with roughly 20 per cent of the electorate. In Spain, Vox, which had no representation in Congress before, captured 15 per cent of the vote in the 2019 general election, establishing itself as a key player in the national political landscape. In Austria, the Freedom Party won the last elections, as did Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, and the centre-right coalitions in Sweden and Finland.
‘Conservative and right-wing parties went from very low, single digit levels to becoming significant political forces after 2016’
These political shifts reflect a broader trend across the various European nations where conservative and right-wing parties have capitalized on issues like immigration, national identity, and dissatisfaction with traditional political establishments to gain substantial electoral support. I believe that without the epochal change on 6 November 2016 in the United States, these shifts in Europe would have taken much longer.
As they consolidate their positions, it is becoming clear that much stronger and deeper cooperation among these European parties and their counterparts in the Americas is needed. President Javier Milei indicated we are in the first steps of such a coalition of the willing materializing – something encouraged in the pages of this newspaper in my previous column.
The strongest sign of this came on 20 January 2025, during Trump’s inauguration. The 47th President had invited Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy, Javier Milei, President of Argentina (while not from Europe, his inclusion underscores Trump’s invitation of right-wing leaders globally), Nigel Farage, UK MP and leader of Reform UK, Eric Zemmour, French politician known for his nationalist views, Tino Chrupalla, co-leader of Alternative for Germany (AfD), Santiago Abascal, President of Spain’s Vox party, and Tom Van Grieken, chairman of Belgium’s Vlaams Belang party. The message was clear: I recognize Europe’s sovereign countries, and I will work with them. (According to some reports and US officials, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was invited, too, but his office denied the news. Whatever the case is, Orbán is undoubtedly on excellent terms with President Trump.)
President Trump and all these European leaders have understood that the West was suffering from unrepresentative elites, acting against their respective national interests. From this came all the discontent on economic policies, cultural impositions and concentration of power in the hands of unelected bureaucrats.
This has left Brussels perplexed because they are unable to react in any meaningful way to such changes. Doing so would mean changing the way the European Union works, resulting in less power for the unrepresentative elites and more decentralization, a change of the economic model, and a return to the vision of Europe’s founding fathers.
The second consequence of Trump’s election is encouragement that Europe change course, economically and on defence issues. It is true that the strengthening of conservative parties is a very welcomed first consequence. But if they cannot form durable governments and enact meaningful change once in power, they will soon fade, and all this effort would have been for nothing.
If President Trump and President Milei’s policies are successful, just as PM Viktor Orbán’s have been, this will serve as a boost for Europe to change its socialist course and reform, not because it wants to, but because popular pressure will be considerable.
There have been several attempts from President Trump during the first term to push Europe to strengthen its economy, and its military capacities. The key to Western success during the Cold War was the alliance and cohesion that existed in the West, especially in the ’80s with the coalition of President Reagan, Prime Minister Thatcher, and Pope John Paul II. Europe must do more to reform itself. It must abandon its socialist policies, and reverse course economically. Otherwise, it will end up a geographical irrelevance with a zombified economy.
‘The European Union must be encouraged to do its part in becoming the second pillar of the West’
Likewise, NATO member countries need to pay more for their defence and better coordinate with each other. The European Union must be encouraged to do its part in becoming an equal partner with the United States, and the second pillar of the West, by championing democracy, common sense economic and cultural policies, and a principled, realist foreign policy. European countries should look after their interests and strengthen themselves through supply-side policies, limited governments, free markets, and law and order, all whilst cooperating with their allies, trading with them, and strengthening the Western bulwark against its enemies.
Trump’s proposal to increase the share of US gas purchased by Europe is a good one that would lead to a reduced reliance of the old continent from geopolitical adversaries. Angela Merkel did not heed the American president’s calls during his first term and Europe paid for it after Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. European voters align more closely with President Trump’s proposals then the impositions of Brussels’ elites.
Europe is not a vassal of the United States, yet it continuously wants to be treated as such. It wants the US to pay for its security, while it spends billions on welfare, unproductive programmes, zombie companies and government clients. It is time it put a stop to the irresponsible behavior of the past decades and start behaving like the world leader the continent used to be.