On Sunday Germans will head to the polls in what is arguably one of the most significant elections in the country’s post-war history. The campaign leading up to the 23 February vote has been notably tense, with illegal migration dominating the political discourse as Germany grapples with a wave of terrorism linked to asylum seekers. Meanwhile, the country has also found itself in the crosshairs of the Trump administration’s criticism, with Vice President JD Vance condemning the state of free speech in Germany and the marginalization of right-wing forces, particularly Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).

The Final Muster

The anti-immigration party, which has been isolated by a political firewall erected by mainstream parties since its establishment in 2013, is currently the second-largest political force in Germany and has significantly increased its support in recent months. According to the latest poll published by German broadcaster ZDF, AfD stands at 21 per cent just two days before the election, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has dropped two percentage points in the campaign’s final stretch, leading with 28 per cent.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) remains at 16 per cent—a figure that would mark the party’s worst electoral performance since 1949. Their coalition partners, the Greens, hold steady at 14 per cent.

‘More than one-quarter of eligible voters remain undecided’

The socialist Die Linke party appears poised to surpass the 5 per cent threshold with 8 per cent support, while both the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the newly formed far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) stand at 4.5 per cent, risking exclusion from parliament.

According to ZDF’s survey, more than one-quarter of eligible voters remain undecided. Given that, and the fact that parties diverging from the mainstream are typically harder to poll, AfD’s actual support could be even higher. A poll conducted by the Washington-based Democracy Institute in early February placed AfD’s support at 25 per cent, with CDU’s dipping to 27, suggesting that the anti-immigration party is within the margin of error. AfD is also particularly popular among young voters, as it effectively utilizes social media—a trend evident in other European countries as well.

It’s All About AfD

Undoubtedly, AfD has garnered substantial attention both in Germany and internationally in the past months. With migrant-related terror attacks becoming more frequent— with more than six incidents resulting in the deaths of Germans in the past six months—and CDU constrained by progressive factions reluctant to tighten migration policy, it is becoming increasingly evident that AfD is perceived as the only viable solution to the myriad challenges Germany faces. From a deteriorating internal security situation to waning international influence and declining economic performance, Germany—once Europe’s powerhouse—is now often referred to as the ‘ill man’ of the continent. These challenges can largely be attributed to progressive mainstream governments’ unwillingness to prioritize national interests over globalist agendas. Against this backdrop, it is unsurprising that AfD, despite facing intense attacks from the establishment, is regarded by many as one of the few credible political forces in the country.

However, despite its growing support, AfD is unlikely to participate in the next government, as every mainstream party refuses to form a coalition with it. CDU, led by Friedrich Merz, faced significant backlash in January after pushing through a proposal to tighten migration policy with AfD’s support. In response, Merz reiterated the longstanding consensus by pledging not to cooperate with AfD in the future.

While the political firewall remains standing but increasingly crumbling in Germany, the situation differs in international politics. AfD has managed to break free from its isolation in the lead-up to the election, thanks in part to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. On 12 February AfD co-chair Alice Weidel visited Budapest at Orbán’s invitation, making him the first sitting head of government to officially receive one of the party’s leaders. After their meeting, Orbán described AfD and Weidel as the ‘future of Germany’, and the two gave a joint interview to Swiss outlet Weltwoche and Hungarian Mandiner.

Orbán’s endorsement, however, was just the tip of the iceberg. AfD received significant international attention in December following the Magdeburg terror attack, when US billionaire and co-chair of the Department of Government Efficiency publicly endorsed the party and its migration policy. This was followed by an intense exchange between Musk and Western European leaders accusing him of election interference.

The final and perhaps most significant blow to the German—and European—mainstream came with JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference. The vice president sharply criticized Europe for failing to combat illegal migration, restricting free speech, and marginalizing right-wing voices, with Germany singled out as a prime example. Following the speech, Vance declined to meet with Olaf Scholz, opting instead to hold bilateral talks with Weidel.

What Drives Voters?

In this charged atmosphere, it is unsurprising that German voters already fear foreign interference in the election, with Russia, the United States, and China identified as the top three actors expected to meddle. This concern is only exacerbated by mainstream parties’ attempts to preemptively attribute any unfavourable outcome to JD Vance and Elon Musk.

Nonetheless, immigration remains the paramount issue influencing voters’ decisions. According to a January survey conducted by public broadcaster ARD, 68 per cent of Germans believe the country should admit fewer refugees.

‘Germany’s political direction holds considerable significance for Hungary’

Approximately 67 per cent support permanent border controls, while 57 per cent advocate denying entry to individuals without valid documents—even if they intend to apply for asylum. Beyond immigration, Germany’s economic situation is a particular source of concern, with more than one-quarter of respondents identifying it as a key issue.

As Orbán emphasized following his meeting with Weidel, Germany’s political direction holds considerable significance for Hungary. Given the close economic ties between the two countries—particularly in the automotive sector—, Hungary’s economic performance is heavily influenced by Germany’s. According to Orbán, the key elements of AfD’s programme would benefit Hungary, particularly regarding migration and energy policy. ‘Everything the AfD stands for today, if it could be implemented, would be good for Hungary,’ Orbán affirmed.

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