Tensions between Poland and Hungary have once again risen after Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski publicly called for an EU referendum on expelling Hungary from the European Union. ‘Hungary is going to hold a referendum on Ukraine’s future membership of the European Union. And I would be curious to see the results of an EU referendum on Orbán’s Hungary’s membership,’ Sikorski wrote on X following last week’s emergency summit of EU leaders, during which Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán vetoed the conclusion draft that included wording on continued support for Ukraine.
After the summit, Orbán announced that the Hungarian government would initiate a public opinion vote on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union. The prime minister argued that Ukraine’s EU membership would fundamentally reshape the bloc’s entire governance structure. ‘We are not prepared for that, so I believe we need to slow down, and we definitely need to gather people’s views on this issue,’ he stated.
Ukraine applied for EU membership in the first days of Russia’s invasion, on 28 February 2022, and was granted official EU candidate status in June of that year. EU leaders agreed on 13 December 2024 to begin accession negotiations with the country. Instead of vetoing the decision in the Council, Orbán walked out during the vote, stating that Hungary did not support Kyiv’s accession but would allow other EU member states to move forward with the process. In return, the European Commission released a significant portion of previously frozen EU funds due to Hungary.
Speaking to Kossuth Radio after the emergency summit, Orbán reaffirmed Hungary’s opposition to Ukraine’s accession, arguing that it would have devastating consequences not only for Hungary but for the entire European economy. Referring to the near-collapse of Hungary’s agricultural sector following the partial opening of trade between Ukraine and the EU, he identified agriculture as the most endangered industry should full membership proceed. Additionally, he raised security concerns, highlighting the large number of armed individuals in Ukraine and the potential risks associated with unrestricted movement into Hungary.
Farmers Against Ukraine Membership
These concerns are not unique to Hungary. Many in the European agricultural sector have expressed similar apprehensions. Ukraine was at the centre of the farmer protests that swept across the continent in 2023 and 2024, mainly due to the agreement between the Commission and Kyiv allowing the unrestricted flow of Ukrainian grain into European markets. Farmers fear that Ukraine’s accession would further threaten their livelihoods by redirecting substantial agricultural subsidies. The majority of these subsidies are allocated per hectare, and given Ukraine’s vast size, family farms across Europe would be placed at a significant disadvantage. The same concerns extend to cohesion funding, which is determined based on a region’s GDP per capita relative to the EU average. Since Ukraine’s war-torn economy would place it well below this threshold, other EU regions would likely see a drastic reduction in available cohesion funds.
Polish farmers are among those most affected, and their ongoing protests may be a driving force behind Warsaw’s aggressive reaction to Hungary’s proposed referendum on Ukraine’s EU membership. ‘Angry farmers push Poland away from Ukraine,’ read a POLITICO headline from February 2025. The progressive outlet noted in the article that ‘protests have helped generate an important political dynamic in a country that was once seen as Ukraine’s most resolute ally against the common enemy: Russia.’ After three years of war, public sentiment in Poland is shifting, with growing frustration over the economic sacrifices made for Kyiv. Sympathy for the farmers is playing a major role in this change. According to a survey by the Public Opinion Research Centre, more than 80 per cent of the Polish electorate supported the protesters at the peak of demonstrations last year. A more recent report from the Mieroszewski Centre, published in January, found that only one in four Poles has a positive opinion of Ukrainians, while nearly a third hold a negative view.
Poland in Campaign Mode
Poland is preparing for a crucial presidential election in May, the first major test of public opinion on Donald Tusk’s controversial governance. The stakes are high: if the right-wing conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party loses the presidency, there will be no institutional check on Tusk and his government’s political vendetta against the former ruling party. According to the latest poll by the Polish Centre for Public Opinion Research (CBOS), Tusk’s candidate, Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, leads with 34 per cent of the vote, while PiS’s candidate, Karol Nawrocki, trails at 26 per cent. However, the gap is steadily narrowing as the election approaches. PiS has centred its campaign on farmers’ protests and their demands, making the issue a focal point of the election.
Tensions between Poland and Hungary—once close allies—began to deteriorate after the war in Ukraine broke out and worsened following Tusk’s return to power in October 2023. Relations reached a boiling point in late 2024 when Budapest granted political asylum to former Polish deputy justice minister Marcin Romanowski. The Hungarian government justified the decision by citing concerns over the possibility of a politically motivated verdict against him in Poland. In early 2025 Warsaw launched an unprecedented diplomatic offensive against Hungary, including barring the Hungarian ambassador from the opening ceremony of Poland’s EU presidency and instructing state institutions not to engage with Budapest’s envoy.
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