Four hundred European soldiers will arrive in the coming days in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) as part of an effort to reinforce the European Union’s peacekeeping mission, EUFOR, in response to rising tensions in recent weeks. According to media reports, 120 will come from Hungary, 120 from Romania, and 120 from Bulgaria, while the remaining soldiers will be from Slovenia. EUFOR announced the increase in troop numbers following appeals from several officials in Sarajevo to the international community. The Bosniak member of the BiH Presidency, Denis Bećirović, stated in a meeting with foreign ambassadors that the EU and NATO should be prepared to defend the constitutional order of the Balkan country if Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik continues his attacks on it.
Fragile Structure
BiH, a fragile state in the Western Balkans created by the Dayton Agreement in 1995, has faced persistent tensions since its establishment, largely due to its artificial nature. The country consists of two autonomous entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina—primarily inhabited by Muslim Bosniaks and Bosnian Croats—and Republika Srpska, where Bosnian Serbs form the majority. These two entities each have their own legislature, judiciary, and executive authorities. At the federal level, governance is shared by a three-member Presidency of BiH, with one representative from each of the country’s three constituent nations. Above all stands the High Representative of the international community, a supreme authority currently held by Christian Schmidt. The high representative has the power to impose or annul laws and to remove officials, including judges and democratically elected political leaders.
Dodik has long been a vocal critic of Bosnia’s state structure and does not recognize the authority of the high representative—one of the main factors behind the current tensions. He has periodically raised the issue of RS independence, particularly during election campaigns to maximize voter support. However, similar sentiments have been expressed by Bosnian Croat politicians as well. Meanwhile, Bosniaks advocate for a strong, centralized federal state, as without the territories populated by Bosnian Croats and Serbs, BiH would be reduced to a small Muslim-majority state in an already volatile region surrounded by traditionally nationalist Orthodox Slavic states.
A Question of Sovereignty
The current standoff escalated after Dodik was sentenced to a one-year prison term and barred from holding public office for six years in what many view as a politically motivated trial for ignoring the rulings of the high representative. During the trial, prosecutors disregarded the fact that Dodik acted in accordance with the RS Constitution and relied on the high representative’s controversial authority—an important note: these special powers, the so-called Bonn Powers, have never been endorsed by the UN Security Council, as major global powers—mainly Russia and the US—hold differing positions on the matter.
Following the verdict, Dodik announced that Republika Srpska would introduce new legislation to curb the authority of federal security forces and judicial institutions within its territory, which it ultimately did, along with the adoption of a foreign agent law. The latter, in essence, is a sovereignty protection measure, and it has been viewed by Western governments and Brussels as a sign of democratic backsliding and a restriction on media freedom. The RS law is largely similar to the one introduced by Hungary in 2017—which is now set to be tightened following revelations by Donald Trump about the USAID-funded network of foreign interference—and to Georgia’s 2024 legislation. Both Hungary and Georgia faced Western criticism over alleged similarities with Russia’s 2012 law on foreign influence, despite the existence of a nearly identical regulation in the United States dating back to 1938.
Given their shared stance on national sovereignty and self-determination, Viktor Orbán has maintained close ties with the Bosnian Serb leader. Following Dodik’s conviction, Orbán expressed support for him on X, stating: ‘The political witch hunt against President @MiloradDodik is a sad example of the weaponization of the legal system against a democratically elected leader.’ He added that the decision also threatens the fragile stability of the Western Balkans.
Blame It on Hungary
The two leaders met in Budapest in February, along with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, to discuss a joint exercise between Hungarian and Bosnian Serb counterterrorism units, notifying BiH authorities in advance. However, reports from self-described ‘investigative’ media—closely linked to USAID and George Soros—alleged that Viktor Orbán had personally authorized a secret plan to escort Dodik out of BiH to Hungary in the event of his conviction. According to Vsquare, this was the true motive behind the deployment of Hungarian counterterrorism forces, though the plan ultimately failed as Dodik appealed the sentence and both Croatia and the United States were informed of the alleged scheme. Orbán dismissed these allegations last week at the emergency EU summit in Brussels, while Hungarian Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó reiterated that Hungarian forces were deployed in RS solely for training exercises, which were conducted in accordance with international standards.
Nevertheless, the allegations have already impacted Sarajevo–Budapest relations, fuelling a diplomatic dispute over Orbán’s close ties with Dodik. The BiH Ministry of Defence barred Deputy Foreign Minister Levente Magyar’s plane from landing in Sarajevo last week during a planned official visit to the capital of BiH and also to Banja Luka—the de facto capital of RS. After his meeting with Dodik, the Croatian member of the BiH Presidency, Željko Komšić, summoned Hungary’s ambassador, Krisztián Pósa, and informed him that Bosnia would no longer permit Hungarian military and police units to enter the country and would push for the removal of the Hungarian contingent from EUFOR.
This statement is particularly striking given that Hungary has been one of the most active contributors to international peacekeeping missions in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In 2024 Major General László Sticz became the first Hungarian soldier to lead the EUFOR mission, a mandate that ended just weeks ago, on 21 January. The number of Hungarian troops in the country increased to nearly 400 in January 2023.
Moreover, Hungary has been one of the most vocal supporters of the Western Balkans’ EU integration, including that of BiH. Szijjártó has frequently raised the issue, as did Orbán during his visit to Sarajevo in 2024. Hungary remains committed to the security and stability of BiH and the broader region, as instability there has direct consequences for Hungary itself. The country has emerged as a key player in the Balkans, maintaining strong relations with states across the region while also making significant contributions to its security, both in BiH and in Kosovo.
Who Destabilizes Who?
What is clear is that efforts to destabilize the Balkans are bearing fruit. The region has a long history of wars breaking out almost every time the international order is shaken. This concern was also addressed by Dodik in a recent post on X, responding to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who stated that Dodik’s actions were undermining BiH’s institutions and threatening its security and stability.
Dodik countered that the US and RS share a common interest in preserving peace and stability in BiH but stressed that this is only possible if the voices of all three constituent nations are heard. He further stated that the BiH Constitution does not provide for a Court and Prosecutor’s Office—the federal institutions that sentenced him—and argued that they are undermining the Dayton Agreement.
‘Moreover, they operate undemocratically, implementing decisions unilaterally imposed by an unelected foreign official rather than those enacted through proper parliamentary procedure,’ he added.
‘I firmly believe that nation-building efforts—along with the artificial maintenance of unviable political constructs—are remnants of the failed foreign policy of the Biden administration, a chapter that President Trump will undoubtedly bring to a close,’ Dodik concluded.
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