On 12 March 2025 the news exploded like a thunderbolt: prosecutors in Bosnia and Herzegovina ordered the arrest of President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik. Arrest warrants were also issued for Interior Minister Radovan Višković and Parliamentary Speaker Nenad Stevandić. The accusation, levelled by Prosecutor Cazim Hasanpahić, is an ‘attack on the constitutional order’. But what truly lies behind this dramatic turn of events? Is it a legitimate effort to safeguard the country’s unity, or yet another chapter in the long saga of the European Union and its proxies politically weaponizing the judiciary in Bosnia and Herzegovina? As a critical observer of Balkan politics, I find the latter far more plausible and view this as a dangerous manoeuvre for power and influence. 

The Dubious Role of the Prosecutor’s Office 

Let’s begin with an undeniable truth: the Prosecutor’s Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina responsible for these warrants does not function in isolation. It operates under significant pressure from international players, notably the European Union and High Representative Christian Schmidt. This German diplomat, whose authority lacks clear endorsement from the UN Security Council, has consistently acted as Brussels’ enforcer, intent on eroding Republika Srpska’s autonomy.

The charge of ‘attacking the constitutional order’ feels like a catch-all label, easily applied to anyone resisting the centralizing agenda of Sarajevo—and, by extension, that of the EU. Where is the evidence? What concrete actions justify such a serious allegation? The announcement remains frustratingly vague, and that vagueness is no accident. Ambiguous accusations are the hallmark of those unwilling or unable to produce solid proof. 

Milorad Dodik in the Crosshairs 

Milorad Dodik is, without question, a polarizing figure. As President of Republika Srpska, he staunchly defends the interests of the Serb population, grounding his stance in the 1995 Dayton Agreement, which established Bosnia and Herzegovina as a federal state comprising two entities: Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. His detractors label him a separatist, but Dodik insists he is simply upholding the rights guaranteed to his entity under Dayton.

‘This is a power struggle, with the judiciary wielded as a weapon to subdue the Serb leadership’

The arrest warrants targeting him and his key allies, Višković and Stevandić, are hardly unexpected. They follow his February 2025 conviction to a one-year prison term and a six-year political ban for allegedly defying the High Representative’s decisions—a verdict that was itself a scandal, widely seen among Serbs as an assault on their autonomy. Now, the situation has escalated further: arrests instead of negotiations. 

A Prosecutor as a Political Tool? 

Prosecutor Cazim Hasanpahić, the man behind the warrants, embodies the core problem with Bosnia’s judiciary: its independence is deeply suspect. Hasanpahić is no stranger to controversy—he has long positioned himself as a loyal ally of Sarajevo’s central authorities, which are closely tied to the EU and the United States. His involvement raises a critical question: is he serving the cause of justice or acting as an instrument of a broader political agenda?

The timing of the warrants, issued shortly after Dodik rejected the authority of the central police and judiciary in Republika Srpska, points to a coordinated retaliation. This is a power struggle, with the judiciary wielded as a weapon to subdue the Serb leadership. 

The Overlooked Croats and the EU’s Partiality 

Curiously, the Croat population of Bosnia and Herzegovina barely registers in this debate. Like the Serbs, Croats chafe under Sarajevo’s centralizing policies and the EU’s approach, which effectively entrenches Bosniak dominance. Yet the arrest warrants single out only Serb politicians, despite widespread Croat discontent with the status quo.

This selective targeting reveals that justice is not the goal here—rather, it’s about undermining Republika Srpska, the most formidable obstacle to centralist ambitions. The EU, which styles itself as a champion of democracy and the rule of law, appears to contradict its own values. Instead of treating Bosnia’s three constituent peoples—Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats—equitably, it picks sides, risking further instability. 

The US Influence and Michael Murphy’s Legacy 

A recurring source of outrage in Republika Srpska is the role of the United States, particularly during the tenure of former US Ambassador to Sarajevo Michael Murphy, who served until 2024. Among Serbs, Murphy is a symbol of a policy that consistently favoured the Bosniak side. His staffing decisions drew particular ire: under his watch, the US Embassy predominantly hired Bosniaks, a move interpreted in Republika Srpska as blatant bias. This reinforced the perception that the US deliberately sidelined Serb and Croat concerns while bolstering Sarajevo’s centralizing efforts.

Looking forward, Dodik’s supporters speculate about a potential shift under a new US administration, such as one led by Donald Trump. They hope a future government might adopt a more even-handed approach, better accounting for the interests of all three ethnic groups. For Dodik, this could provide a much-needed boost, bolstering his position and softening Western criticism of his leadership. 

‘Brussels must cease pitting one ethnic group against the others, honour existing agreements, and call for an end to repression and a turn toward dialogue’

A Perilous Precedent 

The announcement of these arrests is not merely an attack on Dodik and his allies—it sets a precedent that jeopardizes the fragile equilibrium of the Dayton Agreement. When the central judiciary launches such a heavy-handed offensive against an entity’s leadership, without clear evidence or regard for the political fallout, it paves the way for further strife. The Serb population will not quietly acquiesce—they see Dodik as a guardian of their rights. Far from de-escalating tensions, the threat of arrests could radicalize them instead. And where does the international community stand? NATO and the EU are ramping up their presence, yet rather than mediating, they appear to be stoking the flames deliberately. 

The news of arrest warrants against Milorad Dodik, Radovan Višković, and Nenad Stevandić does not herald a victory for justice—it exposes the shameful politicization of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s judiciary. Prosecutor Cazim Hasanpahić may be the public face of this move, but the real architects reside in Sarajevo and Brussels. What we are witnessing is not the enforcement of law but a clumsy show of dominance that tramples the aspirations of the Serb and Croat populations and undermines the very foundation of the Dayton Agreement. The EU should withdraw its meddling hands from Bosnia and Herzegovina instead of pursuing its power games there. Peace in the region hinges on mutual respect for all sides—including the Serbs and Croats, who seek only to protect their security and self-determination. Brussels must cease pitting one ethnic group against the others, honour existing agreements, and call for an end to repression and a turn toward dialogue. Only through this path can Bosnia and Herzegovina secure a peaceful future, rather than descending into fresh conflicts.

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