‘Critical minerals’ is likely the most searched term of 2025 so far, largely due to the yet-to-be-finalized deal between the United States and Ukraine, a significant component of Donald Trump’s push for peace in the war that has raged between Kyiv and Moscow for the past three years. Washington seeks to tap into the war-torn country’s vast and largely untouched reserves of critical minerals—resources widely described as the oil of the future. However, Ukraine is not an isolated case. The second Trump administration’s foreign policy is visibly driven by the objective of satisfying the United States’ growing demand for these strategically crucial resources while also reducing dependence on China.
Before delving further, a brief overview of critical minerals is necessary. Rare earth elements (REEs) and minerals are key to the green transition and technological development. From electric vehicles to smartphones, computers, medical devices, and military technologies, these elements are essential across various sectors. It is important to distinguish RREs from other critical minerals. REEs, comprising 17 elements such as neodymium, dysprosium, and yttrium, are crucial for manufacturing powerful magnets used in wind turbines, electric vehicles, and advanced electronics. Despite their name, they are relatively abundant but difficult to extract economically. Other significant critical minerals beyond REEs include lithium, cobalt, nickel, gallium, germanium, and antimony.
Dependence Breeds Vulnerability
China arguably holds a monopoly over REEs, both in production and reserves. As of 2025, Beijing possesses approximately 44 million metric tons of REE reserves, accounting for about 34 per cent of the global total. In 2024 the country produced 270,000 metric tons of REEs, representing over 69 per cent of global output. This dominance extends beyond extraction, as China also processes nearly 90 per cent of the world’s REEs, consolidating its control over the refining sector. In 2024 Beijing’s rare earth exports reached 55,431 tons, the highest since 2014, despite a significant decline in export value due to falling prices.
Beyond rare earth elements, China is also a dominant force in the global supply chain of several other critical minerals. It leads in antimony production, accounting for 54.5 per cent of global output in 2022. Chinese companies control 68 per cent of cobalt refining, largely sourced from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The country also dominates graphite and lithium refining, with a 72 per cent share of lithium supply as of 2022—an essential component for batteries and renewable energy storage. Additionally, China holds significant phosphorus reserves for agriculture and has invested heavily in foreign uranium production to meet its nuclear energy needs.
‘By leveraging this dominance, China effectively has the capacity to regulate the pace of US technological advancement’
While the United States possesses substantial rare earth element reserves, it remains heavily reliant on imports to meet domestic demand. Between 2019 and 2022 over 95 per cent of the rare earths consumed in the country were imported, with China being the primary supplier. In 2023 the United States imported rare earth metals, scandium, and yttrium predominantly from China, which accounted for approximately 98.7 per cent of total imports. Regarding other critical minerals, Washington relied on Beijing for 63 per cent of its antimony imports—a material essential for various military applications, including night vision technology and nuclear weapons production.
It is now evident why the United States is determined to reduce this dependence. Currently, Beijing wields enormous influence over critical sectors of the American economy, particularly in defence and technology. By leveraging this dominance, China effectively has the capacity to regulate the pace of US technological advancement. This is perhaps the most significant national security threat facing the United States today.
Beyond Ukraine
Donald Trump and his administration have recognized this challenge—though he was not the first to do so, he has arguably been the most aggressive in addressing it. Beyond the minerals deal with Ukraine, Trump’s remarks regarding Washington’s potential purchase of Greenland from Denmark have also attracted significant attention in the mainstream media, raising alarm among European leaders. Unsurprisingly, Greenland possesses vast, largely untapped reserves of critical minerals. The Arctic island hosts significant REE and other mineral deposits, with 25 of the 34 minerals classified as critical by the European Commission found there. These include uranium, graphite, rare-earth oxides, niobium, and tantalum. If fully developed, Greenland’s resource wealth could make it a key player in global mineral supply chains. However, most of these reserves remain untapped due to environmental concerns, regulatory constraints, and infrastructural limitations.
That may change in the future, following the 11 March elections in which the centre-right Demokraatit party emerged victorious. The campaign was largely dominated by Trump’s ambitions regarding Greenland and the prospect of the island’s independence from Denmark.
‘If fully developed, Greenland’s resource wealth could make it a key player in global mineral supply chains’
Demokraatit supports the development and responsible extraction of Greenland’s rich mineral reserves, viewing them as essential for economic self-sufficiency and for reducing reliance on Danish subsidies. The party also advocates for an economic partnership with the United States that aligns with Greenland’s interests and sovereignty.
While countering Chinese influence in Africa remains a formidable challenge for the United States, the Trump administration is reportedly engaged in exploratory talks with the Democratic Republic of the Congo over a deal that would grant Washington access to the DRC’s critical minerals in exchange for military support. Though it may come as a surprise to some, the DRC is the world’s largest producer of cobalt, accounting for over 70 per cent of global supply. It also possesses substantial reserves of gold, copper, tin, lithium, and tantalum. However, a significant portion of these resources is currently controlled by the rebel group M23, which smuggles minerals out of the country. According to Financial Times, Congolese Senator Pierre Kandi Kalambayi has written to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, proposing that American companies be granted mining rights in exchange for US support in training and equipping the Congolese armed forces.
Future Battleground of Great Power Rivalry
While Ukraine and Greenland dominate the headlines, Washington is also looking eastward—where its overtures appear to be welcomed. Trump is setting his sights on Central Asia, a region at the intersection of competing interests from China, Russia, Iran, and Türkiye. Once considered Moscow’s backyard, the former Soviet republics have adopted a more multivector foreign policy in recent years, particularly in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These states now seek to maximize the benefits of their strategic location and vast natural resources.
Central Asia possesses enormous, largely untapped reserves of REEs and other critical minerals, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan leading the region. However, like Greenland, the region lacks the necessary infrastructure and technology to fully capitalize on its strategic potential. While China has already invested heavily in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative, the United States is increasingly signalling its intent to counter that influence—and it has already begun doing so.
‘The US is eager to pursue mutually beneficial opportunities for investment in critical minerals’
Negotiations between Uzbekistan and the US under the Biden administration resulted in the signing of a memorandum of understanding in September 2024 between Washington and Tashkent on the development of mineral resources. Under Trump, however, these efforts have gained momentum. In a 21 February phone call with his Uzbek counterpart, Secretary of State Rubio emphasized that the United States is eager to pursue ’mutually beneficial opportunities for investment in critical minerals.’ Less than a month later, on 7 March, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev announced a $2.6-billion initiative to develop the country’s substantial mineral resources, including a three-year investment plan covering 76 projects related to 28 different elements. Experts suggest that this plan presents the United States with significant investment opportunities in Uzbekistan.
As critical minerals become as essential to future generations as oil was in the past century, it is likely that competition for these resources will become a major battleground between the great powers, particularly the United States and China, with Russia also playing a role. Moreover, history has shown that regions endowed with strategically vital resources that are essential for further technological advance—if managed wisely—can experience significant economic prosperity. The Gulf states serve as a prime example of this phenomenon. If Central Asia can harness its resource wealth effectively, its future appears exceptionally promising.
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