The first presidential debate will be held tonight, 27 June in Atlanta, Georgia, and will be hosted by CNN. This is the earliest the candidates for the two major political parties have ever clashed on a debate stage in a campaign season.
The reason behind the unusual timing is up to interpretation. President Trump confidently challenged President Biden to a debate ‘anytime, anyplace’ on his social media channels back in early March, receiving hundreds of thousands of reactions to his declaration. Perhaps the Biden campaign felt that not taking a public challenge like that would seem like a testament to a lack of confidence in their candidate. However, by the time the debate actually takes place, very few people will remember the initial proposition by President Trump.
Some more cynical observers speculate that this may in fact be a final ‘audition’ for President Biden. They feel that if he were to put on an embarrassing performance—which he is prone to do at public speaking engagements—the Democratic Party leadership is ready to take him off the top of the ticket at the Democratic Convention in August.
One thing is for sure:
Based on polling alone, this debate is happening at a very bad time for Democrats.
Donald Trump has expanded his lead over Biden in the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate since his criminal conviction at the end of May and is now leading by 1.5 points head-to-head and 2.6 points in the five-way race. President Trump has been in the lead (or tied for a brief period of time) in the RCP aggregate for almost 10 months now, since mid-September. This is even more impressive if we take into account that both in 2016 and 2020, polling significantly underestimated President Trump.
One of the most astonishing survey results has just been released. Quinnipiac, one of the most left-leaning pollsters in the country which overestimated Joe Biden on election day 2020 by 6.5 points, shows Donald Trump in the lead by six points in the five-way race.
Also, in the latest Gallup poll, considered a ‘gold standard’ polling firm in the industry, President Biden’s approval rating is an abysmal 38 per cent. Historically, the lowest approval rating by Gallup in June that an incumbent was able to win reelection with was 46 per cent for Barack Obama in 2012.
Another individual poll worth examining is the most recent one by New York Times/Siena College.
It shows President Trump with a four-point lead over President Biden head-to-head, which actually decreases (going against industry trends) in a five-way race to three points. Additionally, the poll poses a number of questions specifically about President Trump’s recent felony conviction as well.
What it found was that 68 per cent of all voters felt it made no difference in the way they are intending to vote. However, of those who felt it did, more people (19 per cent) answered it made them less likely to vote for Trump than who said it made them more likely to vote for Trump (10 per cent).
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