A recent survey by Real-PR 93 reveals that the Fidesz–KDNP coalition would achieve a clear victory with 44 per cent support among decided voters if the parliamentary election were held next Sunday. Meanwhile, the Tisza Party would follow with a solid 35 per cent, accompanied by Mi Hazánk at 7 per cent and the Democratic Coalition with 6 per cent, both expected to gain parliamentary seats. The data was released on Monday by Real-PR 93.

The survey, based on a thousand adult telephone interviews conducted from October 28 to 30, estimates Fidesz–KDNP’s support among the general population at 38 per cent. This figure translates into approximately 3 million supporters across the electorate, including non-voters, using data from the 2022 census as a reference. The Real-PR 93 report emphasizes that this demonstrates a statistically significant lead for the ruling party, even accounting for margins of error.

In the general population, the Tisza Party stands at 25 per cent, reaching around 1.98 million supporters. Meanwhile, Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) has an estimated 320,000 supporters, while the Democratic Coalition’s following is approximately 240,000. Among decided voters, Fidesz–KDNP’s 44 per cent support points to a significant lead that would likely secure their victory.

The report notes that Fidesz–KDNP’s current level of support mirrors its 2022 electoral turnout, counting both domestic and overseas votes. However, for Fidesz–KDNP, mobilization remains crucial in the lead-up to the next election, as voter activity appears lower among its base.

For the Tisza Party, 35 per cent support among decided voters reflects a 5-point gain from its June EP election results, yet it still lags behind the ruling party by 9 points. The Tisza Party’s growing appeal at the expense of other opposition parties mirrors trends seen in the period following the EP elections.

Mi Hazánk currently holds 7 per cent and the Democratic Coalition 6 per cent among decided voters, while the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party stands at 4 per cent, likely below the 5 per cent parliamentary threshold.

Real-PR 93, primarily focused on regional opinion trends, consistently considers Hungary’s capital-countryside divide, a key demographic distinction in Hungarian politics. According to the survey, this gap remains marked: Fidesz–KDNP garners 47 per cent support outside the capital, whereas in Budapest its backing is lower, at 33 per cent. Conversely, the Tisza Party finds greater support in the capital (42 per cent) than in other regions, where it commands 33 per cent of the electorate.

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