Three months after Austria’s parliamentary elections, a significant political shift has occurred in the neighbouring country of Hungary. Coalition talks between the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ), and the liberal NEOS have collapsed, prompting federal President Alexander Van der Bellen to invite Herbert Kickl, leader of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), to form a government. Kickl, who had been politically isolated in recent years, now has the opportunity to lead the country.
This development could also bolster the right-wing European parliamentary group, Patriots for Europe (PfE), founded in June 2024 by Viktor Orbán, Herbert Kickl, and Andrej Babiš, as they may gain a strengthened position and add another governing party to its ranks.
‘This development could also bolster the right-wing European parliamentary group, Patriots for Europe’
The FPÖ emerged victorious in Austria’s parliamentary elections at the end of September 2024, securing 29 per cent of the vote, two percentage points ahead of the ÖVP, led by then-Chancellor Karl Nehammer. Despite this success, reports at the time indicated that forming a government coalition with the FPÖ was unlikely, as the other parties—similar to the approach taken against the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany—were enforcing a cordon sanitaire against Kickl’s party.
However, the mainstream parties—the ÖVP, SPÖ, and NEOS—failed to reach consensus on the fundamental pillars of government formation. As a result, and somewhat paradoxically, the will of the Austrian electorate may now prevail, albeit three months after the election.
Kickl’s FPÖ has gained considerable strength in recent years, and it was already evident during the European Parliament elections in last June that they were poised to perform well in the current elections. The FPÖ’s policies closely align with those of Hungary’s governing parties Fidesz-KDNP. In its election program, titled ‘Fortress Austria,’ they advocate for the ‘remigration of uninvited foreigners,’ aims to create a more homogeneous nation through strict border control, and proposes suspending the right to asylum via emergency legislation. The party also calls for an end to sanctions against Russia, and highly critical of Western military support to Ukraine. Like Orbán, Kickl frequently criticizes the elites in Brussels and has called for taking back certain powers from the European Union to Austria.
‘The Austrian left could soon be Kick(l)ed out of power,’ commented Balázs Orbán, political director to the Hungarian prime minister, in response to recent developments. ‘Rooting for @FPOE_TV’s chairman @herbert_kickl_, who was finally asked to form a government today!’
The official X account of Patriots for Europe (PfE) also weighed in, extending best wishes to Kickl for the challenging coalition negotiations ahead. The Austrian politician will undoubtedly need all the support he can get as he embarks on these discussions. To form a government, the FPÖ will require the backing of one of the two mainstream parties, the ÖVP or the SPÖ. However, a coalition with the SPÖ is almost entirely off the table, leaving the ÖVP as the most plausible partner.
During the campaign, Nehammer categorically ruled out forming a government with either the FPÖ or the SPÖ. However, given that the People’s Party has already entered negotiations with the SPÖ, it seems likely that they will also negotiate with the FPÖ—aligning with the expressed will of the Austrian electorate.
‘Should neither side budge, Austria could face early elections, a scenario that would likely benefit the FPÖ’
The ÖVP previously pledged that Herbert Kickl would not become chancellor, while Kickl maintained that the FPÖ would only join a government under his leadership. This creates a significant impasse, leaving it uncertain which party, if any, will be willing to compromise.
Should neither side budge, Austria could face early elections, a scenario that would likely benefit the FPÖ. The party has continued to gain support since the September elections, despite the mainstream parties’ refusal to collaborate with Kickl. In the event of early elections, the FPÖ would likely increase its number of seats and, consequently, its influence in a future federal government, potentially securing a greater share of ministerial positions.
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