The three-phase Hamas–Israel ceasefire agreement, signed on 19 January, did not even reach its second phase. In the early hours of 18 March, Israel launched a series of comprehensive airstrikes against the regrouping Hamas forces. The border areas of Gaza are being evacuated, creating a staging area for the potential resumption of a ground offensive.
Hamas claims that at least 400 people have been killed and more than 500 injured in the Israeli airstrikes. However, they do not differentiate between civilians and terrorists. Israel states that several Hamas leaders were among those killed in the strikes.
Hamas continues to hold 59 hostages, who were abducted during the terrorist attacks of 7 October 2023.
With the collapse of the truce, the release of Hungarian Israeli hostage Omri Miran is also in doubt, as he was supposed to be freed during the second phase of the ceasefire. A recently released hostage informed Miran’s brothers, Boaz and Nadav, that Omri had been held with him until July 2024, during which time he appeared to be in good physical condition. However, they acknowledge that his situation may have deteriorated in the intervening months.
The Ceasefire Was Doomed from the Start
The collapse of the ceasefire is not surprising for several reasons. Firstly, it was evident that Israel would not fulfil the conditions of the second phase of the truce, which included a complete withdrawal from Gaza and relinquishing control over border crossings. This was especially true after Hamas used every hostage exchange as an opportunity to hold military parades, demonstrate its strength, and provoke Israel. As a result, Israel remained committed to continuing the war until Hamas was entirely dismantled.
Furthermore, following the brutal killing of Shiri Bibas and her young children, former US President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Hamas, demanding the immediate release of all remaining hostages. He also granted Israel free rein and support to continue the war, though the final decision was left to Jerusalem. It seems they have now acted on it.
In reality, the ceasefire had already collapsed two weeks ago. Behind-the-scenes negotiations attempted to salvage it in some form, but Hamas rejected these efforts while continuing to enjoy the benefits of the ceasefire without releasing additional hostages. The US even engaged in direct talks with Hamas regarding the hostages, but it soon became clear that the terrorist group was merely stalling for time while actively recruiting and reorganizing its forces.
Trump Takes a Hardline Stance Against the Houthis and Iran
Israel’s recent airstrikes in Lebanon and Syria may have been intended to keep the northern front under control while refocusing on Gaza. Meanwhile, the Yemeni Houthis and Iran appear to have been ‘delegated’ to the United States to handle.
On Saturday US President Donald Trump launched large-scale military strikes against Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis in response to their attacks on Red Sea shipping. Disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea could affect trade through the Suez Canal, the shortest maritime route between Asia and Europe, through which about 15 per cent of global maritime trade normally passes.
Trump also warned Iran, the Houthis' main sponsor, that it must immediately halt support for the group. He declared: ‘If Iran threatens the United States, America will hold you fully accountable, and we won’t be nice about it!’
What’s Next?
What is Israel’s goal with this renewed escalation? Primarily, it is applying pressure in hopes that Hamas will agree to a deal more favourable to Israel, one that would lead to the release of the remaining 59 hostages. If this strategy fails, a renewed ground offensive is likely.
It is certain that these events will serve as a kind of introduction for the newly appointed Chief of Staff of the Israeli army Eyal Zamir, who is known for his support of using tougher stance against Israel’s adversaries.
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