After nearly fourteen months of heightened hostilities, the Israeli government and Hezbollah, Lebanon’s Iran-backed militant group, have agreed to a ceasefire. This development marks a significant shift in regional dynamics, achieved not through diplomacy but through decisive military action. Israel’s hard power succeeded where months of international mediation led by US envoys had failed, securing Hezbollah’s withdrawal from its commitment to support Hamas’s demands. Or, as The Wall Street Journal stated: ‘Israeli hard power has secured what 11 months of soft words from Biden envoys could not.”

A Fragile Deal with Strategic Implications

The agreement includes a 60-day transition period during which the IDF will withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon, while the Lebanese Army will deploy approximately 5,000 troops south of the Litani River, including at 33 posts along the Israeli border. Hezbollah forces will vacate southern Lebanon, and its military infrastructure will be dismantled in line with the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 formulated following the 2006 war. Additionally, the US has reportedly issued a side letter affirming Israel’s right to respond to any ceasefire violations.

The ceasefire, while promising on paper, is no guarantee of lasting peace. Hezbollah’s history of rearming in southern Lebanon raises concerns about the durability of the agreement.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has underscored that the ceasefire is not an indication of Hezbollah’s defeat but a recalibration of the balance of power. ‘This is no longer the same Hezbollah,’ Netanyahu stated, highlighting the significant setbacks inflicted on the group’s capabilities, including the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah and the dismantling of its command infrastructure.

Despite losing eighty soldiers during the conflict, Israel’s military effectively neutralized weapons caches and tunnels near the northern border, forcing Hezbollah into retreat. Netanyahu’s bold assertion that Israel has set Hezbollah ‘back decades’ reflects a significant strategic victory.

Hezbollah’s Eroded Deterrence

For years, Hezbollah’s arsenal of missiles and its capacity to launch devastating attacks had served as a potent deterrent, constraining Israeli actions in the region. This conflict shattered that paradigm. Israel’s pre-emptive strikes and covert operations neutralized much of Hezbollah’s threat, demonstrating its ability to respond decisively to aggression.

This shift is critical for Israel’s northern communities, which bore the brunt of Hezbollah’s attacks. Over 60,000 residents were displaced during the conflict, and their safe return will be the ultimate test of the ceasefire’s success. However, scepticism abounds regarding whether Hezbollah will adhere to the terms, especially given its violations of past agreements such as United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701.

Netanyahu has made it clear that Israel will act unilaterally if Hezbollah resumes provocations, stating: ‘If Hezbollah launches a rocket, digs a tunnel, or brings in a truck carrying rockets, we will attack.’

Reaction from Hungary

Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó has welcomed the ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon, expressing optimism that displaced individuals could return home and live in peace. Szijjártó posted his comments as he arrived for bilateral talks in Marocco, a party to the Abraham Accords.

This development aligns with the Trump administration’s anticipated foreign policy approach, which is expected to support Israel’s military objectives while facilitating diplomatic resolutions to regional conflicts. The ceasefire may also pave the way for expanding the Abraham Accords, with potential new agreements involving countries like Saudi Arabia. The Trump administration’s transactional diplomacy is likely to offer significant incentives to encourage such normalization efforts, aiming to enhance regional stability and strengthen alliances.

Last week, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán openly rejected the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, denouncing it as ‘outrageously brazen and cynical”.

As Hungarian Conservative has also reported, Orbán criticized the ICC for intervening in an ongoing conflict under the guise of a legal decision but for political purposes. Demonstrating Hungary’s support for Israel, Orbán extended an invitation to Netanyahu to visit Budapest, assuring that the ICC’s warrant would not be enforced on Hungarian soil. This stance underscores Hungary’s commitment to its alliance with Israel, even at the expense of international legal obligations.

What to Expect from Trump’s Foreign Policy

As The Wall Street Journal’s editorial argues, if the agreement holds through the critical 60-day transition period, it could open new diplomatic avenues for Israel. A weakened Hezbollah and an isolated Hamas could shift the regional focus towards broader peace agreements under the Abraham Accords.

This could provide an opportunity for Donald Trump to fulfil his campaign promise of bringing peace to the Middle East, with a strong Israel serving as the cornerstone for such regional stability.

Trump is expected to revive his signature transactional foreign policy in the Middle East, focusing on pragmatic, mutually beneficial agreements. The expansion of the Abraham Accords will likely be a central goal, with Saudi Arabia as a key target. However, such an initiative will require significant incentives for Riyadh, potentially including a broad defence agreement or enhanced security guarantees. For this diplomatic effort to succeed, the resolution of the Gaza conflict will be critical. Instead of applying pressure on Israel to scale back its operations, Trump’s administration is likely to offer Jerusalem a free hand to achieve its military objectives efficiently.

Trump’s most aggressive policies are expected to focus on Iran, a consistent target of his administration’s ire. With a cabinet that will potentially compose hawkish, pro-Israel figures, such as Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor, Trump’s second term is likely to see an even tougher stance on Tehran. This is driven by Iran’s escalating provocations in recent years, including arms sales to Russia, direct attacks on Israel, and an alleged assassination plot against Trump himself. These actions have deepened the already adversarial relationship between Washington and Tehran. Aligned with Trump’s ‘peace through strength’ doctrine, the new administration will likely pursue stricter sanctions, increase military containment, and intensify diplomatic isolation of Iran, positioning it as the focal point of US foreign policy in the region.

Related articles: