Despite Brussels’ attempts to portray Viktor Orbán’s peace mission in early July as a failure, there are strong indications that the Hungarian Prime Minister’s negotiations, along with his subsequent report and proposals, will encourage the leaders of the EU Member States to reconsider their largely pro-war stance.
A good example of this shift is the recent interview with Finnish President Alexander Stubb in the French newspaper Le Monde. In the interview Stubb stated that we have reached a point where the commencement of negotiations can no longer be postponed. The Finnish president highlighted that Ukraine is stronger than ever, thanks to support from the US and the EU, and there are no signs of a Russian breakthrough on the battlefield. ‘We are reaching a point where negotiations must begin. It is crucial to point out that a possible discussion process is not an end in itself,’ Stubb emphasized.
The Finnish president asserted that the initiation of negotiations should
not be contingent upon the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine
—an opinion Viktor Orbán has consistently expressed, such as when he urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to consider a time-bound ceasefire with Russia. According to Stubb, for the negotiation process to succeed, Zelenskyy needs four essential elements: a resolution regarding the territories occupied by Russia, security guarantees for Ukraine, justice for the prosecution of war criminals from the Russian Federation, and support for the country’s recovery.
Alexander Stubb’s words align with the international processes that have been, or could be, triggered by Viktor Orbán and his peace mission. Last week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba travelled to China to discuss peace options with his Chinese counterpart. After more than three hours of talks, Kuleba stated that Ukraine is ready to negotiate with Russia if Moscow ‘acts in good faith.’ However, he added that, according to Ukrainian assessments, this is currently not the case.
After Kuleba’s visit, Moscow also signalled willingness to negotiate with Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov even mentioned that these negotiations could proceed even if Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains the President of Ukraine. This marks a significant shift from the previous position, as Moscow had not considered Zelenskyy to be a legitimate leader. Consequently, Russia’s stance until now has been that no negotiations with Zelenskyy would take place.
Moreover, in recent weeks, Kyiv has repeatedly indicated its desire to organize an event similar to the peace conference held in Switzerland in early June. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, among others, mentioned this intention after his talks with Viktor Orbán.
These statements echo Viktor Orbán’s ten-point assessment of the negotiations and his proposals, which he recently sent to European Council President Charles Michel. He wrote that the EU should initiate a debate on holding high-level political talks with China regarding the modalities for the next peace conference. Orbán also pointed out that the EU should launch a concerted political effort towards the Global South, whose goodwill has been lost due to our position on the war in Ukraine, resulting in the global isolation of the transatlantic community.
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