Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is visiting France on Wednesday to meet French President Emmanuel Macron at the latter’s invitation ahead of Thursday’s crucial European Council emergency summit. The meeting, convened by EUCO President António Costa, aims to establish a common position among member states following a heated clash between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last Friday in the Oval Office.

According to both Hungarian and French media, the primary focus of the Orbán–Macron meeting will be the war in Ukraine. Based on previous encounters between the two leaders, the French president is expected to make another attempt to persuade Orbán to soften his long-standing position advocating for peace talks to end the conflict, which has been raging in the EU’s neighbourhood for over three years.

A Firm Stand for Peace

However, Macron’s efforts are almost certain to fail, as Orbán has only hardened his pro-peace stance in recent days. With Trump halting all US military aid to Ukraine on Monday, the Hungarian prime minister stated at a press conference that there is ‘a strategic divide, a transatlantic rift’ between most of Europe and the US under Trump. ‘One side insists on prolonging the war in Ukraine, while the other seeks an end to the conflict,’ he said. Orbán added that Hungary continues to stand firmly for peace.

The Hungarian prime minister also wrote a letter to Costa, urging the EU to follow the US’s example and engage in direct peace talks with Russia. He further recommended removing Ukraine from the draft conclusions of the summit to secure unanimity, arguing that the strategic differences among EU member states regarding Ukraine cannot be bridged by mere diplomatic statements.

Besides Hungary, Slovakia also opposes prolonging the war through additional military support: Prime Minister Robert Fico and his government remain committed to peace. Regarding the summit conclusions, Fico proposed including a call for an immediate ceasefire as the basis for further negotiations. He also warned that if the summit attempted to pressure Slovakia into adopting a pro-war stance, the Council ‘may not be able’ to reach a joint position by the end of the day.

Another Blow for Diminishing European Influence

EU leaders rushed to express their support for Zelenskyy after last Friday’s chaotic scenes in Washington and continue to push for an even more aggressive pro-war stance. Over the weekend an emergency summit was held in London with the participation of some 18 countries, including Kyiv’s staunchest supporters.

The gathering resulted in the formation of a so-called ‘coalition of the willing’, which pledged unconditional support for Ukraine and devised a peace plan countering US efforts. However, when it came to concrete European security guarantees for Ukraine, little was said. Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer mentioned that deploying peacekeeping forces in the country remained a possibility. However, since then, several member states, including Italy, have backed away from the idea.

Events took another unexpected turn after a weekend of negotiations on how the EU could compensate for the withdrawal of US military and financial support for Kyiv. Zelenskyy effectively ‘bent the knee’ to Trump, posting a lengthy and unusually cautious diplomatic statement—which is not his typical style, to put it mildly—saying that Ukraine is ready to sign the minerals deal at any time. ‘My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership to achieve a lasting peace,’ the Ukrainian leader wrote on X. He also included a passage directly addressing the controversial press conference in Washington:

‘We truly value everything America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence. We also remember the moment things changed—when President Trump provided Ukraine with Javelins. We are grateful for this.’

Tensions escalated in the Oval Office after Vice President JD Vance accused Zelenskyy of disrespecting the administration and the United States, claiming he had never expressed gratitude for the aid Washington had provided for Ukraine’s self-defence.

Zelenskyy concluded his apology letter by stating: ‘Ukraine is ready to sign [the minerals deal] at any time and in any convenient format.’

While the details behind this shift remain unclear, it appears that after assessing what Europe had to offer, Zelenskyy was dissatisfied and is now trying to return to the original ‘line-up’. This represents a major embarrassment and a loss of face for the European Union, further signalling its diminishing geopolitical influence. Zelenskyy’s decision is almost certainly linked to the proposed €20 billion immediate military aid package, which was quietly scrapped from the emergency summit agenda due to a lack of consensus among member states.

Speaking at the joint session of Congress on Tuesday, Trump said he appreciated Zelenskyy’s admission, adding that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready for peace.

Von der Leyen’s Plan to Ramp Up EU Defence

According to the official summit agenda, another critical issue on the table is enhancing Europe’s defence capabilities. The US has made it clear that it will no longer prioritize defending its NATO allies at its own expense and instead intends to focus on threats closer to its own borders. This is an area where Macron and Orbán share similar views, as both have long advocated for European strategic autonomy and the establishment of a common European defence framework.

On Tuesday European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled an €800 billion plan to boost defence spending among member states.

‘We are in an era of rearmament, and Europe is ready to massively increase its defence spending—both to respond to the urgent need to act and to support Ukraine, as well as to assume greater responsibility for our own European security,’ she said, describing the Rearm Europe Plan.

The proposal, which will be discussed on Thursday, includes a ‘new instrument’ providing €150 billion in loans to member states to finance joint investments in pan-European defence capabilities, including air and missile defence, artillery systems, missiles and ammunition, drones, and anti-drone systems. Diplomats also suggested that it could contain a clause requiring countries to invest or transfer 20 per cent of each purchase to Ukraine.

However, von der Leyen did not offer concrete details on how member states would mobilize the full €800 billion. She claimed that if EU countries increased their defence spending by an average of 1.5 per cent of GDP, approximately €650 billion could be freed up over the next four years. It is also reported that activating the national escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact and utilizing post-COVID recovery funds could play a key role in securing the necessary financing.

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