Viktor Orbán expressed optimism regarding the economic policy conditions for the next two years at the opening event of the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s annual economic conference.

According to MTI, the prime minister stated that two conditions are necessary for a successful economic policy: a finance ministry and an economy ministry capable of handling the situation, and a chamber of commerce that cooperates effectively with the government and provides the foundation for economic policy.

Assessing the current situation of the Hungarian economy, the prime minister said Hungary is grappling with an inherited, significantly high debt ratio,

accrued by left-wing governments, with the right-wing governments working towards reducing it.

He stressed that crises such as the one caused by the coronavirus pandemic invariably exert a detrimental effect on public debt. ‘The objective is to reach a stage…where we become lenders rather than being reliant on borrowing from others,’ he emphasized.

Until 2020, the PM stated, there was a ‘clear, steady, successful, upward trajectory’ in the economy, but the COVID-19 pandemic followed by the Russo-Ukrainian war disrupted this momentum. But the period from 2020 to 2024 has been a period of ‘reversal,’ aimed at reinvigorating the Hungarian economy to achieve higher growth rates this year.

The prime minister highlighted the new approach of the government regarding economic policy, rooted in the understanding of global economic interconnectedness, departing from a simplistic imitation of Western economic policies. He emphasized that while the West faced challenges, the Eastern economic relations of Hungary continued to thrive.

Avoiding Bloc Formation

Orbán also addressed the relationship between the economy and the geopolitical challenges of our time. He highlighted that the pace of redrawing the world’s economic and political map has quickened, with Western and non-Western regions evaluating matters in starkly different ways. As an illustration, he pointed to the war in Ukraine, noting that while the West, excluding Hungary, intervened, other parts of the world either refrained from involvement or adopted a pro-Russian stance. The prime minister further observed that the interpretation of the Taiwan conflict differed between the West and the East, and similar discrepancies, albeit with minor variations, were evident in the Middle Eastern situation as well.

He argued that geopolitical competition is superseding market principles, and technological advancements are predominantly influenced by political motives. He underscored the significance of connectivity, contrasting it with the ‘decoupling’ strategy favoured by the West. According to the Prime Minister, the preference for connectivity has supplanted decoupling because the West lacks the competitiveness to rival Eastern economies solely on economic grounds and therefore resorts to political methods.

Orbán cautioned that should the world revert to forming blocs, Hungary’s eastern border could become the dividing line between the East and the West, relegating the nation to a neglected, peripheral status within the Western sphere.

He elaborated that in a scenario marked by cooperation and trade in international relations, Hungary could position itself as a bridge between two worlds, offering opportunities for both. Hungarian economic policy is banking on the prospect of sustaining mutually advantageous cooperation between these two spheres, PM Orbán explained.

The Inevitable Rearmament of the Old Continent

In addition to the imperative to rejuvenate European competitiveness, the prime minister underscored another urgent concern for the continent: the inevitability of Europe’s rearmament. ‘We cannot predict how long the Americans will remain stationed in Europe, and we are unable to ensure our own security independently, thus prompting accelerated military-industrial development across the region,’ he cautioned.

However, he recalled that Hungarian instincts proved astute, as about four years prior to the war’s outbreak, Hungary embarked on the construction and advancement of the Hungarian military industry on a historically unprecedented scale.

Consequently, Hungary finds itself two to three years ahead of others in this regard. ‘Politics is sometimes governed by intuition, not solely by laws, and this holds true for both the green transition and the advancement of the defence industry,’ he remarked.

As he stated, the primary concern regarding the Russo-Ukrainian war for Hungary is ‘whether the Russian border will advance closer to us or not.’ He further commented that if the conflict persists, the border will inevitably draw nearer due to Russian military advancements.

‘This is entirely contrary to our interests, but we are also firmly convinced that there is only one means to prevent this: if the West consolidates its efforts and endeavours to achieve a negotiated peace,’ remarked the prime minister. He suggested that achieving this now will prove more challenging than it would have been a year ago, given that the military situation has now evidently shifted in favour of the Russians.

In the interim, there exists a risk for Europe that negotiations may exclusively involve Moscow and Washington, thereby placing the entire European security framework contingent upon a Russian-US agreement, he added.

‘Only a new player, who had no role in the outbreak of this war, can pave a way out,’ stated PM Orbán, clearly alluding to former US President Donald Trump. He further remarked that the world’s sole prospect for a relatively prompt peace settlement hinges upon a political shift in the United States.

A Political Shift in Europe

Following the US presidential elections, the prime minister also addressed the upcoming European Parliament elections to be held this summer. Viktor Orbán emphasized the necessity for a political direction in Europe that demonstrates greater respect for reality, and one that formulates economic policy based on reality rather than being guided by ideological motives typical of left-wing governments.

He opined that a right-wing shift towards rationality in Europe is undoubtedly forthcoming,

but whether it will manifest as a groundbreaking change or merely a shift in power remains uncertain. He added that, realistically, one should anticipate a change in emphasis.

In his address, the prime minister also touched upon Hungary’s regional cooperation. In terms of the Visegrád Group, he asserted that it is not something to discard hastily, as it still retains ‘some vitality’. However, he also emphasized the importance of exploring other avenues of cooperation between sovereign states.

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