The following is a translation of an article written by Vivien Kalas, a researcher at the University of Public Service Institute for Strategic Studies, originally published on the Five Minutes Europe blog of Ludovika.hu.
Addressing the difficulties posed by demographic change will once again be the task of Dubravka Šuica in the European Commission. The issue is also a priority for Hungary during its six-month presidency, with the aim of adopting several Council conclusions.
With the conclusion of her previous term, the President of the European Commission (EC) has reappointed Croatian Dubravka Šuica to the same position for the next five years to tackle the demographic challenges in the new body. Ursula von der Leyen set out two main priorities for Šuica in her mandate letter outlining the future tasks of the Commissioner-designate. On the one hand, the number of people in employment should be increased, with a special focus on women, young people, and other groups that have been under-represented so far. The other task for the Commissioner-designate is to implement the demographic toolkit to facilitate the European Union (EU) to help Member States reduce their difficulties. This is naturally part of Ursula von der Leyen’s political priorities up to 2029.
The Commission had presented the demographic toolkit in October 2023, in response to the European Council’s call to do so in June of the same year. The toolkit aims to address demographic challenges while at the same time boosting the Community’s competitiveness.
The European Union is experiencing a natural decline, and the population is projected to continue falling in the coming decades. To counter these tendencies, the EC has identified four areas for development for Member States. The first is to reconcile family and work so that having children is not a barrier to a successful career. In this context, the Commission calls for, among other things, a significant increase in the participation of women in the labour market, the provision of early childhood education for as many children under three as possible, and the use of paternity leave. According to the latest figures, in 2023 the employment rate for women in the EU was just over 65 per cent, compared with over 75 per cent for men. In 2022 93.1 per cent of those entitled to early childhood education participated at the Community level, still below the 96 per cent benchmark set in the 2030 strategic framework.
‘The Commission calls for, among other things, a significant increase in the participation of women in the labour market’
The second area is supporting the younger generation, for example by reducing the number of early school leavers and improving housing. Early school leavers are defined as citizens aged between 18 and 24 who have only completed primary education or less and are not in education or training anymore. The share of these young people was 9.5 per cent at the EU level in 2023, a figure that has been steadily declining over the years, but there is still work to be done if nations want to see the figure below 9 per cent by 2030.
Thirdly, the European Commission has identified the promotion of employment of the older generation and ensuring a decent standard of living as a means to address demographic challenges. This means developing a sustainable pension scheme, supporting jobs in various forms in the case of people close to retirement, and providing quality healthcare. In 2023 the employment rate for people aged 55–64 in the EU was 63.9 per cent, which has been rising slowly over recent years.
Finally, as a fourth point, the Commission has identified the promotion of legal migration, too. To this end, an EU talent pool would be set up to bring together EU employers and third-country employees. It would also speed up the recognition of third-country qualifications in the EU and increase the proportion of people coming to the EU to study.
Demography and the Hungarian Presidency
Achieving the demographic turnaround will take a long time and a lot of work, but Hungary wants to take the first steps already in the coming months. Finding solutions to existing problems is one of the key objectives of the Hungarian EU Presidency in the second half of 2024. Hungary sees the demographic toolkit as a starting point, and the sub-measures have been defined along the lines of the toolkit, with full respect to the competences, so it is no coincidence that the Hungarian action plans and those described in the toolkit are in many areas identical.
The Hungarian presidency considers it a priority to support families with young children and to help older people who want to work find a job, even after retirement. Hungary plans to adopt a number of Council conclusions within the six months available, in areas such as the role of cohesion policy in addressing demographic challenges and the ‘effective mobilization of labour reserves’.
As Europe’s competitiveness comes under the spotlight, more attention is inevitably being paid to population change and its—for now—harmful effects. This is also reflected in the new package of measures of the European Commission presented above. Hungarian efforts will therefore probably be well received by European politicians, but there may be differences of opinion on the issue of migration as a possible—long-term—solution to population decline. Nevertheless, common ground is inevitable if nations are to find a common EU response to the problem.
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