As we move closer to the early elections in Germany, scheduled for 23 February, the so-called ‘firewall’ (Brandmauer in German) imposed by mainstream parties against the anti-immigration, right-wing party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) appears to be slowly falling down. While the rise of patriotic, sovereigntist forces is a broader European trend—evident in several EU member states such as Austria, France, and Italy, to mention a few—the developments in Germany can be attributed primarily to two factors: Elon Musk and mass migration.
Founded in 2013, AfD has been labelled as ‘far-right’ by mainstream parties and media—a common tactic in Europe and the United States to marginalize and discredit right-wing forces among voters. Although the party faced scandals in its early years, its moderate faction has since worked to distance itself from radical elements as AfD gained more popularity in federal politics. Despite these efforts, a long-standing agreement among establishment parties—the Social Democrats (SPD), the Liberals (FDP), the Greens, and the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU)—to exclude AfD from governing coalitions remains in place. This so-called ‘firewall’ extends to the legislative process, with mainstream parties refusing to support or introduce legislation that could pass only with AfD’s backing. However, this might change after February.
The ‘Love Story’ of Musk and the AfD
To understand the current situation in Germany and the role Elon Musk has played, we need to go back to last December, when the US billionaire and co-chair of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) endorsed AfD for the first time publicly. This occurred in the aftermath of the Magdeburg Christmas market terror attack. On 20 December a Saudi man drove a van into a crowd at the Christmas market in Magdeburg, killing six people, including children, and injuring 200 others. Following this horrific incident, Musk took to his X account to post: ‘Only the AfD can save Germany.’
After a series of posts supporting AfD’s policies, Western European leaders, including acting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, accused Musk of election interference and heavily criticized the SpaceX and Tesla owner. The European Parliament even urged the European Commission to investigate Musk’s alleged attempts to influence the German elections.
Musk, however, refused to back down and instead intensified his support for AfD. He hosted the party’s co-chair and chancellor candidate, Alice Weidel, in a one-hour live conversation broadcast on X. During the discussion, Musk declared: ‘People really need to get behind the AfD. Otherwise, things are going to get very, very much worse in Germany.’
In his latest show of support for AfD, Musk made a rare virtual appearance at the party’s campaign kick-off on Saturday. Addressing the crowd alongside Weidel, he called the party the ‘best hope for Germany’ and urged the country to ‘preserve German culture’ and ‘protect the German people’. Musk also suggested that it is ‘time to move on’ from the ‘past guilt’ tied to Germany’s role in World War II and the Holocaust. He stated: ‘Children should not be guilty of the sins of their parents, let alone their great-grandparents.’ Musk further added: ‘It’s good to be proud of German culture and German values, and not to lose that in some sort of multiculturalism that dilutes everything.’
Breaking Taboos
With his surprise appearance, Musk once again broke the internet, drawing even more attention to AfD. However, his statements on national guilt came at an unfortunate time, just two days before Holocaust Remembrance Day on 27 January, which sparked backlash from many, including several Jewish public figures. It is important to understand, though, that Musk’s comments at the rally—essentially that Germans should not be ashamed of their nationality—highlight one of the fundamental reasons why the mainstream’s firewall against AfD has been so effective: many Germans, at least to some extent, are not proud of their national identity due to the atrocities committed by the country during World War II.
This sentiment has been highlighted in numerous articles and polls. Former Editor-in-Chief of the German daily Bild Kai Diekmann even recounted to Hungarian Conservative the challenges of pushing through the famous headline ‘We are the Pope!’, which many of his colleagues criticized as being ‘too nationalistic’. In her 2017 article, Rachel Martin, former Berlin correspondent for NPR, reflected on the 2006 FIFA World Cup held in Germany, describing it as ‘the first time in postwar history that Germans displayed a sense of national pride, of patriotism, which until then had been basically off-limits.’ She added: ‘There was too much shame associated with German history.’
‘There was too much shame associated with German history’
Make no mistake: the crimes of the Nazis and the millions of Jewish lives lost in the Holocaust must and will be remembered forever. However, this does not mean that Germans should collectively feel perpetual guilt and self-hatred, nor should they overcompensate in ways that harm their own country.
A clear example of such overcompensation was the overwhelming support for former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Wilkommenskultur in 2015. Germany’s response to the migration crisis triggered by the Arab Spring involved opening its borders to millions of migrants, both legal and illegal. Those who opposed this policy were frequently labelled as racist or fascist, not only within Germany but across the European Union.
We Hungarians know this all too well from first-hand experience. At the time, the Hungarian government was the sole voice advocating for the protection of the EU’s external borders—a stance that resulted in retaliatory measures from Brussels.
A Chance to Break Free
However, the open-border policy is one of the primary drivers behind the myriad of challenges Germany is currently facing, ranging from economic difficulties to social and security-related issues. By breaking the taboo and declaring that Germans have the right to be proud of their culture and nationality, to defend their homeland, and to take their fate into their own hands, Musk is offering Germans a unique opportunity. This is a chance to break free from the constant manipulation of mainstream parties and media, to confront the flawed policies of recent years, and to pursue real solutions to the country’s problems. And to realize that the only viable solution to these issues currently lies with AfD.
The signs of tectonic shifts in German politics are becoming increasingly clear as the cracks in the so-called firewall deepen. AfD is polling at around 20 per cent, making it the second-largest party in the country, trailing CDU/CSU by 9–10 percentage points.
‘Germans have the right to be proud of their culture and nationality, to defend their homeland’
While it is almost certain that the CDU/CSU will win the early elections, accurately measuring AfD’s true support remains challenging—largely due to the reasons outlined earlier, as some voters may feel reluctant or ashamed to openly admit their support for the party.
Meanwhile, the parties of the failed ‘traffic light coalition’—the SPD, FDP, and the Greens—are polling at approximately 17, 14, and 4 per cent, respectively. There is a slim but not entirely unrealistic chance that, after the elections in February, the CDU may need AfD’s support to form a government—although CDU leaders continue to insist that such a scenario will not occur.
It’s All About Migration
As immigration rises to become the number one issue among the electorate, it is increasingly difficult to look beyond AfD for viable solutions. The party’s programme dedicates an extensive chapter to addressing the issue and proposes the only workable strategy: reinforced border protection, mass deportations of individuals residing illegally in the country, processing asylum applications outside Germany, rejecting the European Migration Pact, and more—policies that closely mirror Hungary’s approach to migration.
After last week’s knife attack in Aschaffenburg, carried out by an Afghan migrant—the fourth immigration-related incident in just over six months that has resulted in the deaths of Germans—claiming the lives of two, Friedrich Merz, CDU’s leader and chancellor candidate, has already signalled a willingness to cooperate with AfD to tighten immigration laws. This comes after Weidel addressed an open letter to Merz, expressing her party’s readiness to collaborate with the CDU on the matter. ‘We will vote regardless of who supports our motion, even if it is only the AfD,’ Merz told MPs in a statement.
‘The firewall has fallen,’ Alice Weidel reacted on X. The significance of this development is further underscored by the reaction of progressives, who appear to be in a state of panic. Robert Habeck, the Greens’ chancellor candidate, warned of a ‘dark’ future, comparing the potential outcome of the German elections to that of Austria’s elections in September 2024. In Austria—a country ‘culturally and politically very close to’ Germany—Herbert Kickl’s Freedom Party (FPÖ) emerged victorious and was invited to form a government after mainstream and progressive parties failed to reach a coalition agreement. The same firewall, or cordon sanitaire, that is applied to AfD in Germany had also been enforced against FPÖ in Austria before their victory.
This, therefore, is not an isolated development but rather part of a broader European—or more precisely, Western—trend. While the process has been gradual and its exact starting point difficult to pinpoint, the most significant catalyst is undoubtedly Donald Trump’s victory last November. As a leader who has been relentlessly demonized and labelled with terms like racist and fascist by the mainstream media, Trump’s re-election has emboldened people across the Western world to voice opinions that differ from the mainstream narrative. Simultaneously, the mainstream media and political establishment are increasingly losing their ability to dictate and manipulate public sentiment regarding their policies.
‘Mainstream media and political establishment are increasingly losing their ability to dictate and manipulate public sentiment’
However, we must be honest—even in the midst of change, this process cannot yet be considered irreversible. Thousands are still protesting against AfD in Germany, and there is an ongoing political debate about potentially banning the party—unbelievable as that may sound. Yet, time appears to be working in favour of the patriots, as the firewall weakens, gradually being brought down brick by brick. And figures like Elon Musk undeniably play a pivotal role in this transformation: inspiring people to think critically and to speak their minds, while providing platform for the oppressed voices. Ultimately, it is up to the people to decide their future.
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