In recent years Hungarian foreign policy has resembled a rather delicate balancing act—maintaining its NATO and EU commitments while pursuing its own path, causing much vexation in certain quarters in Brussels and Washington. Under the Biden administration, this balancing act often led to diplomatic friction, as Hungary’s orientation toward sovereignty and pragmatism clashed with the U.S. foreign policy establishment’s fixation on remaking the world in its own image.
But times change, and so do White House occupants. With President Donald Trump’s return, the script has flipped. Unlike his predecessor, Trump is not interested in pressuring allies over ideological differences and touting ill-defined ‘shared values’. His administration is focused on a pragmatic, interest-based approach—one that prioritizes security, economic growth, and regional stability over abstract commitments to global governance. This American Sphere Doctrine—an emerging strategy that seeks to consolidate American power in the Western Hemisphere while encouraging allies to take greater responsibility for their own security—will define global geopolitics in the coming years.
‘For Hungary, this is not a moment of crisis. Rather, it is an open door’
For most countries, this boils down to a simple question: are you useful? If so, welcome aboard. If not, best of luck. And even then, many allies are now expected to carry their own weight; ‘unipolarity’ is quietly being deleted from the dictionary of U.S. foreign policy.
For Hungary, this is not a moment of crisis. Rather, it is an open door. As Europe painstakingly ‘adjusts’ to Washington’s new priorities, kicking and screaming along the way, Budapest is well positioned to strengthen its partnership with the United States. Not by submitting to outdated transatlantic assumptions, but by proving its strategic worth in a world where sentimentality no longer carries much currency.
Hungarian Advantages in the New Transatlantic Order
Very few European leaders have built as strong a relationship with Trump as Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Unlike many of his counterparts, Orbán understands the Trump administration’s worldview: national interest comes first. Sovereignty is the watchword of the day. Likewise, strength is respected, while clinging to a status quo that is no longer viable is a hopeless endeavor. Hungary’s approach to political affairs—rooted in pragmatic self-interest, cultural preservation, and a nuanced understanding of human nature—aligns closely with the thinking of key figures in the Trump administration, particularly Vice President J.D. Vance.
But personal connections, while valuable, are not nearly enough. A relationship that is not built on sentimental appeals to transatlantic unity or ritualistic affirmations of democracy is far less moralizing and more transactional. The challenge for Budapest is to ensure that Hungary’s strategic value is recognized not just by Trump himself, but by the broader network of policymakers and strategic advisors shaping Washington’s new approach to the world.
This means demonstrating, in practical terms, why Hungary matters. A stronger defense posture, economic alignment with U.S. priorities, and a leadership role in Central European diplomacy will determine whether Budapest remains an afterthought in Washington’s calculations or cements itself as a valued regional partner. Each one of these merits closer consideration.
Strengthening Regional Security
Washington has made it abundantly clear that European allies must take greater responsibility for their own defense. This doesn’t mean the United States is wholesale walking away from NATO, or has suddenly grown disinterested in European security. What it does mean is that the United States is no longer willing to underwrite the safety of allies who refuse to make serious investments in their own militaries. The new reality is simple: those who contribute will have influence. Those who don’t will be treated like the security dependents they are.
Hungary is already ahead of the curve in this regard. Unlike many of its Western European counterparts—whose defense ministries for years have treated military spending as an unpleasant distraction from social programs—Budapest understands that security cannot solely be outsourced indefinitely to Washington. Over the past decade, Hungary has steadily increased its defense budget, modernized its military, and invested in domestic defense production.
This has not been a performative gesture; it is a recognition of Hungary’s key geographical and logistical position in the shifting security architecture of Europe. Hungary sits directly behind Ukraine, which practically makes it a frontline state. As the Russo–Ukrainian war gradually winds down, and with Trump fixated on ending the conflict, Hungary will soon find itself bordering either an insecure rump buffer state or a Moscow-dominated vassal.
This is why Budapest must double down on its defense commitments, particularly in next-generation military technologies and domestic arms manufacturing. Ammunition shortages are one of the defining issues of the war in Ukraine, revealing a shocking lack of production capacity across much of Europe. Hungary has an opportunity to position itself as a key producer of high-demand military supplies, reducing reliance on external sources and reinforcing its strategic importance within NATO. Investments in drones, advanced defense systems, and even cyber warfare capabilities will also be crucial in making Hungary a more indispensable player in European security.
‘The challenge for Budapest is to ensure that Hungary’s strategic value is recognized…by the broader network of policymakers and strategic advisors’
But military preparedness alone is not enough. Hungary must also solidify its role as a regional coordinator in Central and Eastern European security. For instance, the Polish-led Three Seas Initiative (3SI) can still become a powerful economic and security bloc, provided it is backed by real commitments. Budapest already plays an active role in the 3SI, but now is the time to take it further. Deepening security cooperation with Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and other states will be essential for developing a regional security architecture that is less reliant on Western European leadership and more aligned with the interests of Central and Eastern Europe.
Economic and Energy Connectivity
One of the defining elements of the emerging American Sphere Doctrine is the restructuring of global trade and energy networks to reduce reliance on geopolitical adversaries. The Trump administration is particularly focused on countering Chinese economic influence in Europe and ensuring energy security in the expanded Atlantic region.
Hungary is positioned to become a key player in both areas.
First, Budapest can position itself as a regional hub for economic connectivity. The country’s graphical position puts it at the terminus—and thus key distribution points—of two increasingly important economic corridors: the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor, and the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), also known as the New Golden Road. In other words, Hungary is a natural transit point for trade and infrastructure investment linking Central and Eastern Europe to both the Indo–Mediterranean and the Silk Road Region. By actively participating in these initiatives, Hungary can strengthen its economic ties with not just Washington, but also a variety of new partners, creating the conditions for a new wave of investment.
Second, Hungary’s energy strategy will be crucial. While its ties to Russian energy remain a point of friction with Western policymakers, the Trump administration’s focus is less on ideological purity and more on practical outcomes. If Hungary can diversify its energy mix—integrating more oil and gas imports from Azerbaijan and Central Asia, expanding its nuclear energy cooperation, and playing a bigger role in Mediterranea–Central European energy transit via Trieste—it will reinforce its value to Washington while maintaining its energy security.
Diplomatic Leadership in Central Europe
Over the past decade, Budapest has risen as the chief critic of the EU’s governance model and a champion for a sovereignty-focused European order. Under the American Sphere Doctrine, this role could become even more significant.
Washington’s new approach to Europe does not prioritize traditional power centers like Brussels and Berlin. Instead, it seeks regional actors who can independently contribute to stability and security. Hungary is well positioned to be one of these. With its strategic location and multi-vector, balanced foreign policy, Budapest can serve not only as an anchor for the Danube Region, but also as a bridge between Western Europe and both the Balkans and the Turkish world.
Strategically located in the middle stretch of the Danube, Hungary is ideally situated to navigate the competing interests of Austria, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Romania, and other neighboring states, ensuring regional coordination remains functional and aligned with broader Western interests. Moreover, given the Danube River’s importance as both an economic artery and a geopolitical dividing line, Hungary’s ability to coordinate infrastructure and security along its banks makes it a natural partner for maintaining stability in this critical region.
‘Hungary’s ties to its immediate region and the Turkic world could make it a valuable channel for dialogue’
Looking further south, Hungary is well-placed to help manage regional relations in the Balkans. As a historical power of the region, Budapest understands the political and security challenges shaping Southeastern Europe. The ongoing tensions in Bosnia and Kosovo, Serbia’s balancing act between the West and Russia, and other challenges all require careful diplomacy. Hungary’s close ties to Belgrade and its broader economic and security interests in the region make it a natural stabilizing force—one that Washington would find useful.
To the east, Hungary has also expanded its influence in the Turkish world via its Eastern Opening (‘Keleti Nyitás’) policy. As an observer state in the Organization of Turkic States, Budapest has positioned itself as a European link to Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and Central Asia. This carries weight. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Türkiye has pursued an independent foreign policy and is now at its strongest since the Ottoman Empire. Azerbaijan is growing stronger, having taken back its disputed territories from Armenia in the Second Nagorno–Karabakh War and secured a strong position for itself as a keystone state and determinant player in the Middle Corridor. Across the Caspian, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are strengthening their regional influence.
Washington wants to maintain leverage in all of these areas, and Hungary’s ties to its immediate region and the Turkic world could make it a valuable channel for dialogue.
Building the Bridge
Hungary’s place in the new transatlantic order is not about picking sides but playing them well. Hedging between great powers is currently regarded as a form of disloyalty in Washington, even if such an approach is driven purely by practical considerations. Hungary, informed by extensive historical experience, understands this reality better than most. And for the United States, a country that engages both allies and strategic question marks—without slipping out of the Western orbit, especially during an era of geopolitical realignment—is an asset, not a liability.
This is not to say Hungary should stop strengthening its security or economic ties with Washington. On the contrary, its ability to balance regional relations makes it more, not less, valuable to Washington. A Hungary that keeps the Danube Region aligned with Western interests while maintaining working relations with states to the east serves a function that others cannot. The alternative—a region left to drift between rival influences—would hardly be preferable to American interests. If nothing else, Hungary’s pragmatic diplomacy ensures that doors remain open where they might otherwise be shut, and that American interests retain a foothold in places where enthusiasm for the West these days is, let’s say, somewhat lacking.
The new transatlantic order will reward those who bring something to the table, and Hungary’s role as a bridge—between East and West, between Europe’s power centers and its peripheries—is not easily replaced. Some may grumble that this is not the unequivocal allegiance they would like to see. But in a world where rigid alliances are giving way to shifting blocs, ad hoc minilaterals, and transactional partnerships, Hungary’s strategy of keeping multiple lines may be what Washington needs.
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