It is always difficult to adapt to new realities. This holds true even in everyday life—take, for example, a breakup or the loss of a job. Something taken for granted can suddenly disappear in the blink of an eye. States and their governments are even more affected by changing realities, especially in times of crisis—not to mention during war. Losing an ally that provided unlimited financial support and the promise of victory can lead to thoughtless statements by heads of state and government, or worse, reckless actions. This is precisely what is happening in the European Union and Ukraine as the Russo–Ukrainian war enters its fourth year.
After Donald Trump secured a historic re-election victory in November 2024, it was already evident that US policy regarding the war in Ukraine would change drastically in 2025. Trump’s main campaign promise was to bring peace to the conflict raging in the EU’s neighbourhood while halting—or, more precisely, linking—military and financial support for Kyiv to specific criteria. It is a promise he has kept. Less than a month after his inauguration on 20 January, Trump announced on 12 February, following discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that negotiations to end the war would begin ‘immediately’. Six days after the call, US and Russian delegations met in Saudi Arabia to discuss the main details and demands of a potential agreement, as well as to improve bilateral relations. Notably absent from the talks were Europe and Ukraine.
If You Ignore It, It Will (Not) Go Away
These two actors seem either reluctant or incapable of adapting to the new reality. For much of last week, Zelenskyy acted as if he were still negotiating with the previous Democratic administration led by Joe Biden, engaging in an especially intense war of words with Trump. This may have been one of the Ukrainian leader’s worst mistakes over the past three years—aside from withdrawing from peace talks in the spring of 2022, trusting in the promise of victory and unconditional support from Western powers.
Sticking to his same, sometimes aggressive and demanding tone, Zelenskyy essentially accused the US president of being a Russian asset spreading disinformation—an argument tactic often employed by the so-called NAFO community when attempting to dismiss opposing viewpoints. Zelenskyy also misled the public by denying that Ukraine had rejected a Washington-proposed deal to exchange Ukrainian rare earth metals and minerals for US support, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Most recently, Zelenskyy asserted that Ukraine was not obliged to repay any of the money provided by Washington, claiming it was all grants and aid—immediately prompting social media users to recall his 2023 statement: ‘Give us credit, and we will pay it back after the war.’
Before the peace talks began, US Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth outlined the Trump administration’s vision of the fundamental pillars on which a future agreement should rest. He stressed that it was unrealistic to set Ukrainian NATO membership as a goal of the current negotiations or to aim for a return to pre-2014 borders. Nevertheless, on Sunday Zelenskyy stated that he was ready to step down as president—after Trump had previously called him ‘a dictator without elections’—in exchange for ‘peace’, which he later defined as NATO membership for Ukraine.
The Land of Delusion
Surprisingly, the EU, led by Brussels, appears even more disconnected from this new reality. At the very least, Zelenskyy seems to be adapting, trying to identify where the red lines lie. In contrast, Brussels and Western European countries—led by the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and others—seem to be in complete denial about what is happening. More precisely, they fail to recognize their growing irrelevance, a consequence of three years of flawed Ukraine policy based on a single principle: echoing whatever Biden and his administration said or did regarding Ukraine. Let there be no doubt: had Donald Trump been in the White House three years ago, refusing to provide unconditional financial and military support for Kyiv or promise ultimate victory over Russia, the EU would have done nothing to confront the Russian invasion of its neighbour.
After Washington set the direction, Brussels merely mimicked it, adopting an even more vehemently pro-war stance than the Democrat-led US. Over the past three years, any mention of peace has led to the demonization and stigmatization of member states—namely Hungary and, more recently, Slovakia.
‘After Washington set the direction, Brussels merely mimicked it, adopting an even more vehemently pro-war stance’
Now, with a genuine chance for peace within reach, Brussels has doubled down on its stance, promising Ukraine everything and more to achieve the ultimate goal: defeating Russia. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a EUR 3.5 billion financial aid package for Ukraine, arriving in Kyiv for the anniversary of the war. Notably, the EU is doing this as its economic and diplomatic power is rapidly declining.
The EU’s lack of competent leadership is also evident when considering that Brussels had at least two months to prepare a tangible strategy in response to Washington’s U-turn on Ukraine. Yet, despite its despair over being excluded from the negotiating table—at least for now—, the emergency meeting convened by French President Emmanuel Macron failed to yield any concrete solutions beyond the familiar rhetoric of ‘unconditional support’.
Orbán Will Be Right
There is a recurring saying in Hungarian political discourse, particularly in recent years: ‘Viktor Orbán is not right. He will be right.’ This has proven true regarding migration, European common defence, and most recently, the war in Ukraine. Hungary has been the lone voice in the EU advocating for peace talks since the war began. Orbán also warned the EU that its stance could lead to the unfortunate scenario of major powers deciding Europe’s future—without Europe’s involvement. ‘If you want a seat at the table where the big boys are playing, look around and try to find the sucker. If you can’t find him, it must be you. So much for Paris,’ the Hungarian Prime Minister remarked, mocking Brussels in his State of the Nation address on Saturday.
As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, the world faces an entirely new reality. A reality where Russia and Putin are no longer portrayed as the greatest evil. A reality where diplomacy is once again regarded as the primary tool for resolving disputes between nations. A reality where the end of the conflict could be within arm’s reach. And a reality where, unfortunately, Ukraine and Europe appear increasingly irrelevant.
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