What was more of a bad joke a couple of months ago may become a reality after all: geriatric President Joe Biden may be re-elected in November.
The 46th POTUS has been struggling with low approval ratings since September 2021. High inflation and foreign policy disasters—starting with the Afghan withdrawal, then followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Hamas attack on Israel—plagued his first term in office. Despite that, the Democrats avoided the total beat-down in the 2022 midterms. Republicans only gained a narrow majority in the House, and the Democrats even gained a seat in the Senate and two governorships.
However, as things did not get any better, President Trump regained his lead in the national polls by late August 2023. Republicans also got back one governorship in the 2023 off-year elections. In the primaries until now, Republican turnout outnumbered that of the Democrats in each key swing state. In Georgia, for example, it did so more than 2:1 even after both primaries became uncontested. In Wisconsin, two referendums introduced and backed by Republicans passed by massive margins, with both ballot initiatives relating to election integrity, not the right-wing agenda point with the most mainstream appeal.
President Trump easily cleared the GOP primary field, and appeared as a strong challenger to President Biden, the favourite to win the 2024 election. However, on 15 April, President Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan, New York City started, which is the first criminal trial for a former President in US history.
President Trump has to be present for all court days throughout the months-long trial, keeping him away from the campaign trail—he can only hold rallies on the weekends.
Some speculated that this unjust treatment would spark sympathy in the voters, and put him in a martyr’s role, thus increasing his electoral chances.
However, the primary results in Pennsylvania seem to rebut that theory.
Although President Trump won the Republican primary in the state of Pennsylvania, got 786,485 votes, while President Biden got substantially more, 920,274 votes. For the first time in the 2024 primary season, Democrat turnout outnumbered that of the Republicans as well. Around 1,040,000 people voted on the Democrat side, and around 942,000 people voted on the Republican side. President Trump got 83.5 per cent of the vote in his party’s contest, while President Biden got 93.1 per cent.
Pennsylvania is a key swing state with 19 electoral votes. President Trump won it in 2016 by 0.72 points, and President Biden won it in 2020 by 1.17 points.
It is possible for President Trump to win the 2024 election without winning Pennsylvania, however. In fact, the Keystone State is the only one of the swing states where he has been polling behind President Biden, who is from the state originally, having been born in Scranton, Pennsylvania in 1942. Trump has been both polling better and performing better in the primaries in all other swing states: in North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He does not need to win all six of these states either, he has multiple paths to victory.
Trump is also still almost certain to get the highest vote share in US history for a non-incumbent candidate, beating Al Gore’s 75.8 per cent in the 2000 Democratic primary.
He still maintains a narrow lead in the RealClearPolitics national polling aggregate, 0.2 points head-to-head against President Biden, which expands to one point when all five major candidates are polled. Additionally, President Biden’s approval rating has dipped below 40 per cent yet again, so President Trump still has things going for him in the 2024 election.
However, the problem is that this Pennsylvania primary was the one held closest to the election in a swing state. It therefore cannot be determined definitely if it is a regional improvement for President Biden, confined to the state of Pennsylvania, or if it is part of a national improvement for him. This also proves that President Trump can be hurt by tying him down with court cases, which he has plenty to deal with aside from the Manhattan hush money trial as well.
So, overall, these are not good developments for those rooting for the Republican Party in November.
However, for some consolation, the GOP is almost certain to take the Senate, with seats held by Democrats being up for election in deep-red states, such as West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio; and the Republican Senate candidate Larry Hogan somehow holding a massive polling lead over both of his potential Democratic opponents in strongly liberal Maryland. Also, no Republican seat is up for grabs in contested swing states or deep blue states.
Related articles:
