After an initial burst, the transformation of the Patriots for Europe alliance, founded on Sunday by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Herbert Kickl, President of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), and former Czech Prime Minister and ANO party President Andrej Babiš, into a real European Parliament political group, is progressing slowly. However, there is no need to be concerned— at least for now.
The European Parliament’s political groups have until 4 July (today) to form unofficially and until 15 July to form officially. Therefore, PM Orbán and his alliance are not out of time yet. However, on Wednesday, the new right-wing alliance suffered a significant setback.
For days, the Polish Law and Justice (PiS) party has been described as one of the potential candidates to join Patriots for Europe. The party of former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki would have been an ideal fit: 20 MEPs from the largest member state in Eastern Europe would have been brought into the grouping, significantly
enhancing the importance of both Patriots for Europe and the region in EU decision-making.
PiS is one of the pillars of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), founded by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. However, there has been growing tension between the two largest parties in the political grouping, particularly between their leaders—Meloni and Morawiecki. The latter recently told POLITICO that there is a 50/50 chance they will leave the ECR.
By Wednesday evening, however, it was certain that this would not happen. On 3 July the constitutive meeting of the ECR was held, after which PiS MEP Kosma Zlotowski told the Polish news agency PAP that they would remain in the ECR in the new European Parliament. Polish politicians in the group have retained their previous positions, with Joachim Brudziński remaining as co-chair and Zlotowski returning to one of the treasurer posts.
The End of ID?
But as they say, when one door closes, another opens. According to Bloomberg, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party is inching closer to joining Orbán’s new formation. The RN (30 MEPs), which achieved a landslide victory in the French EP elections and the subsequent first round of the early parliamentary elections, will decide after the weekend—following the second round of the elections—which EP political group it will join.
It is likely to be Patriots for Europe.
This move would also mean that the current faction of the RN, Identity and Democracy (ID), would cease to exist. This is likely because the FPÖ, which is also currently a member of ID, would, of course, leave if Patriots for Europe were to formally form. This could set off an avalanche of changes that could be very favourable to Orbán.
Matteo Salvini’s League party is also a member of ID, and the Italian politician was quick to congratulate the formation of the new right-wing force. Salvini’s recent statements suggest that the League is also ready to leave ID and join Patriots for Europe. ‘We are working on a proposal by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to create a European patriotic political group,’ Salvini said at a recent press conference.
One of the newcomers to the European Parliament, the Portuguese party Chega (Enough!), has already announced its accession, bringing the total number of MEPs to from four Member States. This number of MEPs is already sufficient to create a new political group, as 23 are needed, but parties must come from at least seven member states for the project to become a reality. With the RN and the League joining, the number of countries still needed for the group to become official would be reduced to one, which would almost certainly be secured with the dissolution of ID.
In this case, it is highly likely that the Belgian Vlaams Belang (3 MEPs), the Dutch Party for Freedom (6 MEPs), the Danish People’s Party (1 MEP), and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (1 MEP), which have so far only been mentioned as potential members, would also join Orbán's new formation, thereby officially creating Patriots for Europe.
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