Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented his ‘victory plan’ at the European Council summit on Thursday, followed by a meeting of NATO defence ministers. Some parts of the plan were already known to the public, having been presented to the Ukrainian parliament on Wednesday and earlier to former US President and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. From the outset, it was evident that Zelenskyy’s plan would not lead to peace but rather raise the risk of escalation, or even worse: another world war.

Ukraine’s survival can only be guaranteed by joining NATO or by providing Kyiv with nuclear weapons, Zelenskyy told EU leaders, making his intentions clear. The Ukrainian president reminded them that, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia, ensuring that its sovereignty and territorial integrity would not be compromised in the future.

‘Which of these major nuclear powers suffered? All of them? No. Ukraine [did],’ Zelenskyy told the EU leaders. ‘Who gave up nuclear weapons? All of them? No. Ukraine. Who is fighting today? Ukraine,’ the Ukrainian president continued in his usual theatrical style. The truth, however, is that Belarus and Kazakhstan, along with Ukraine, also gave up their nuclear weapons in favour of Moscow.

Zelenskyy then presented the EU leaders with a choice: ‘Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons as our protection, or we should have some sort of alliance. Apart from NATO, we do not know of any effective alliances today.’ The Ukrainian president added that NATO member states are not at war, their people are not dying on the battlefield, and for this reason, Ukraine would prefer NATO membership over nuclear weapons.

The Details of Zelenskyy’s ‘Victory Plan’

But let’s take a closer look at Zelenskyy’s plan. The first one in the five-point plan—or rather, list of demands—is the aforementioned NATO membership. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte quickly responded during the following press conference, stating that he could not guarantee or say that all NATO member states—each of the 32 countries ‘yes’ vote is needed to become a member—would vote in favour of inviting Ukraine. He added that his ongoing discussions with Kyiv and member countries could not be disclosed via a press conference. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico had previously stated that Ukraine would not become a NATO member during his mandate, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán called Zelenskyy’s entire plan ‘more than frightening.’

The second point of the plan may already be familiar from the past two and a half years of war: more Western weapons, with no restrictions on their use—meaning Ukraine could fire Western cruise missiles and other weapons anywhere, including deep into Russian territory. The issue with this is that Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in late September that Russia would consider an attack from a non-nuclear state, backed by a nuclear-armed one, as a ‘joint attack.’ In other words, if Ukrainians were to attack Russian territory with US missiles, Moscow would view it as a direct attack by the United States. The potential outcome in that scenario is clear: nuclear war.

The plan also proposes deploying a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package on Ukrainian soil, sufficient to protect Ukraine from any military threat from Russia. Zelenskyy did not specify exactly what this would entail but noted that the French, British, and American leaders are aware of what Kyiv needs.

‘The potential outcome in that scenario is clear: nuclear war’

The fourth point proposes an agreement between the European Union, the United States, and Ukraine for the joint use of Ukraine’s critical resources—such as lithium, gas, titanium, and others—and for future energy production collaboration.

Last but not least, Ukraine offers to station some contingents of its army in Europe after the war, replacing the US troops currently stationed there. ‘Ukrainians have proven that they can be a force that Russian evil cannot overcome,’ Zelenskyy told the Ukrainian parliament. The last two points are thus an offer from Kyiv; however, the price of this offer is high, to put it mildly.

Reactions To the Plan

The plan has already faced criticism in the Ukrainian parliament, with opponents arguing that it leaves Ukraine too dependent on its Western allies. They suggest that the success of the plan rests in the hands of those allies, making it more of a wish list than a true victory plan.

Balázs Orbán, Political Director to the Prime Minister, spoke to the press in Brussels on behalf of the Hungarian government. ‘The “victory plan” of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the shortest route to the outbreak of World War III, and therefore Hungary does not support it,’ he said. Orbán added that the EU should instead pursue a peace strategy focused on diplomatic solutions rather than sending weapons and escalating the conflict further.

‘President Zelenskyy’s “victory plan” is not a win-win but a lose-lose situation, and we will not participate in it,’ Viktor Orbán emphasized during his regular Friday morning radio interview. The Hungarian PM explained that the EU is now divided into two groups regarding the war in Ukraine. From the outset, Hungary made it clear that it does not want to participate in the war effort, while the other EU countries are involved. Orbán stressed that the EU is behaving like a belligerent party, adding that Hungary has consistently argued that this is the wrong strategy, that the war cannot be won, and that negotiations are needed.

‘The “victory plan” of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the shortest route to the outbreak of World War III, and therefore Hungary does not support it’

He noted that the other 26 EU countries were stunned when Zelenskyy announced his ‘victory plan.’ ‘What has he had so far?’ Orbán asked. ‘What used to be a plan has turned into a plan for defeat, and now they want to turn it into a plan for victory,’ he said, making it clear that Hungary would not be part of this effort.

Moscow was also quick to respond to Zelenskyy’s plan. According to a statement from the Kremlin, the proposal outlined by the Ukrainian president could easily lead to a direct conflict between NATO and Russia.

All Eyes On Trump

It is important to note that the plan was revealed just three weeks before the key US presidential elections, where Donald Trump is currently the frontrunner. The former president has repeatedly emphasized that, if he wins, he would not wait until his inauguration next January to immediately work towards settling the conflict. This would likely force Ukraine to come to the negotiating table, effectively rendering Zelenskyy’s plan obsolete.

Just the other day, Trump discussed the war in Ukraine during a podcast. ‘He [Zelenskyy] should never have let that war start. The war’s a loser,’ he pointed out. The former president also accused President Joe Biden of having ‘instigated that war,’ a claim he has repeatedly made, insisting that it would never have happened if he had been president. Trump added that he has ‘a good relationship with Putin and with Zelenskyy,’ whom he met last month during the United Nations General Assembly. Ahead of that meeting, Trump promised to negotiate a deal that would be ‘good for both sides.’

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