The description of the Thucydides Trap is more a description of a spontaneous escalation rather than a well-calculated move towards changing the international order. Applied to the case of the US and China, the ‘Thucydides Trap’ is far removed from the reality and complexity of such power relations, beyond being a useful rhetorical tool.
‘Nevertheless, the Tories will be swept away by popular anger on 4 July. Then, who’s left? No one else than the infamous Nigel Farage. And it is exactly the Conservative Party’s obfuscation and identity crisis that Brexit leader Nigel Farage has used to launch the Reform UK party.’
Nearly three weeks after the European elections, it remains unclear which right-wing political group the Hungarian governing party, Fidesz, will join in the new European Parliament. In this analysis, we examine the possible alternatives and attempt to answer this question.
Hungary begins its six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union on 1 July during a period of extraordinary circumstances and challenges. During its presidency, Hungary aims to focus on seven priorities to answer the EU’s most pressing economic, security, and social issues.
Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah threatens to use Syrian refugees as a political weapon while also warning Cyprus of a possible attack if the island nation assists Israel militarily. The group’s ability to manipulate refugee flows and its readiness to use military force against EU member states necessitate an effective and coordinated response from the European Union.
Two elections this week at the Council of Europe will determine the institution’s future orientation. On Tuesday, 25 June the new Secretary General of the Council of Europe will be elected for a five-year term. On Wednesday, 26 June three new judges for the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) will be elected for a nine-year term. Senior Research Fellow at the European Centre for Law and Justice (ECLJ) Nicolas Bauer points out the risk of a leftist takeover.
Pro-Palestinian gender studies students disrupted the graduation ceremony of the Central European University (CEU) in Vienna. The students accused the university administration of supporting the genocide allegedly perpetrated by Israel. These events mirrored the pro-Palestinian protests observed on US campuses.
‘A successful republic, according to Machiavelli, is characterized by laws that are lived by rather than frequently amended. While no system of governance can achieve absolute perfection, a stable republic can achieve a functional balance. For him Rome serves as a historical exemplar of such a system, where laws were respected and adhered to, placing communal benefits above personal gain, thus prudently managing both public and private affairs.’
Popular anti-government actor Ervin Nagy has been named as a high-profile donor for Magyar’s demonstrations, yet some question if Nagy’s financial support is sufficient to cover the expenses of photographers, stages, audio and other electronic equipment, not to mention the honoraria of advisors and the costs of travel and accommodation. Trying to clarify the situation Magyar also cited micro-donations from ordinary Hungarians as the source of funding for his campaigns. He also promised to make his asset declaration public back in April, following a rather high-profile breakup with his ex-wife, the former Minister of Justice Judit Varga, but he has not done it so far.
Minister of Foreign Affairs of the State of Israel Israel Katz visited Hungary recently for the first time since he took up office. He met with President of Hungary Tamás Sulyok, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó, and the leaders of the Hungarian Jewish communities. The main aim of the visit was to determine, with Hungary soon taking over the presidency of the EU, how Budapest and the Union would take action against anti-Israel efforts in the next six months.
Speaking to Hungarian journalists the day after an informal working dinner of EU leaders, Balázs Orbán pointed out that European voters made one thing clear in the European Parliament elections: they are not satisfied with the direction Europe has taken in the past five years, and they are not satisfied with the policies of Brussels bureaucrats and elites.
Orbán seems to have reached a compromise with exiting Dutch PM Mark Rutte about the latter’s NATO SecGen candidacy. But as for nominating von der Leyen again as next Commission President, Orbán, did not mince his words last night. He declared on X that ‘the will of the European people was ignored’ on Monday evening, and stated that the EPP eventually teamed up with ‘the socialists and the liberals’.
The 9 June, Sunday European Parliament and municipal elections in Romania resulted in a historical success for the Hungarian ethnic minority, with the best results achieved in twenty years. As RMDSZ President Hunor Kelemen put it, the mandates RMDSZ won are not just numbers; they also send the message that there is a strong, viable Transylvanian Hungarian community that wants to shape its own future and plans on staying in its homeland.
Slovakia’s newly elected president, Peter Pellegrini (49), was inaugurated on Saturday, 15 June in Bratislava. This historical moment is not simply a change of guard but, after the 2023 parliamentary elections, it is the last step in a significant shift in the country’s political landscape, stirring anticipation and hope for a patriotic future in Central Europe.
‘Hungary is not providing money, weapons or soldiers for this cooperation, but it is not blocking it either’, the defence minister reaffirmed after the NATO ministerial meeting in Brussels last week.
The European Court of Justice has ordered Hungary to pay €200 million for ‘failing to respect’ EU law regarding procedures for granting international protection and returning illegally staying non-EU nationals. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán called the decision outrageous and unacceptable.
Four days after the EP elections, the Center for Fundamental Rights held a press conference analysing the implications of the results. They concluded that there was a significant increase in the support of the political right in the EU, and this fact will reshape European politics.
A turnabout in the Hungarian stance seems unlikely at the moment. The Hungarian government has consistently vetoed further military assistance to Ukraine as well, and will most probably not change course regarding Ukrainian accession to the EU either under the Hungarian rotating presidency.
‘The HAIKU states present a novel approach to exploring and understanding how statesmen and national leaders can navigate a dynamically changing global political landscape, marked by shifts in power balances, evolving alliances, and heightened strategic competition.’
President Trump ended the primary with 76.4 per cent of the popular vote, the most ever for a candidate running as a non-incumbent since the binding primary system was established in 1972. The previous record was held by former Democrat Vice President Al Gore, who got 75.8 per cent in 2000.
Snap elections in France, the Belgian Prime Minister resigning, and the German coalition government in turmoil—all happening in the wake of the European elections. Even though the elections, billed as crucial, did not bring the right-wing turnaround many had hoped for, the right-wing parties, almost without exception, performed well, causing panic among the liberal elite in Western Europe.
On Sunday, Hungarians went to the polls in an atmosphere of heightened emotions. The day after the election that saw a record turnout several conclusions can be drawn: the traditional left has nearly disappeared, anti-Hungarian conduct in the EP has been punished by voters, and Fidesz remains by far the strongest party. However, there are still many unanswered questions, especially regarding the next steps of the newcomer Tisza party.
The long-ruling right-wing Fidesz party won by the third largest margin in the European Parliamentary elections last night, behind the PSD-PNL big tent coalition in Romania and long-time ally Marine Le Pen’s right-wing populist Rassemblement National in France. Fidesz also got the third highest vote share, behind PSD-PNL’s 53 per cent and the Maltese Labour Party’s 45 per cent.
‘The four camps of congressional foreign policy suggest different readings on the transatlantic alliance. From a liberal universalist perspective, NATO is not just a political and military alliance focusing on collective defence, but rather a collective security cooperation based on shared values. A pragmatic liberal argument views NATO as an institution where allies’ interests and values can be aligned, whereas a prudential realist understanding highlights the alliance’s role in pursuing US interests in accordance with US values. Lastly, from a strict realist perspective, NATO is the contemporary embodiment of an American sphere of interest in Europe.’
In this analysis the number of right-wing MEPs who won seats in the 2019 European parliamentary elections are compared to how many seats right-wing parties are predicted to win this year. The countries covered are Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria.
Despite slipping slightly from first place according to the exit polls, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) managed to significantly increase the number of MEPs it is to send to the EP on the first day of the European elections. PVV will have seven seats in the new EP, with Wilders expressing hope that the official results, to be announced on 9 June, will confirm that his party came in first.
The Hungarian MVM Group is set to buy a stake in Shah Deniz, one of the world’s largest natural gas fields, in Azerbaijan. This move will significantly strengthen Hungary’s energy supply and represents another major step towards independence from Russian energy sources.
In the first 24 hours after the historic guilty verdict, President Trump’s campaign raised a whopping $52.8 million, according to the announcement of the campaign itself. If this is true, that would be a shattering new record, beating out the $26 million the Biden camp raised in one day in August 2020, after they announced that Kamala Harris would be their Vice Presidential nominee, the first black female candidate on a presidential ticket.
Spencer Chretien was the guest of honour at the Center for Fundamental Rights’ latest event, where he talked about the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, aiming to help an incoming new Trump administration. Mr Chetien also spoke about his time in the first Trump administration, President Trump’s trial in Manhattan, and the problems with the liberal bureaucracy in Washington, DC.
Belgium, currently holding the rotating EU Presidency, is urging member states to accelerate the Article 7 procedure against Hungary, which could result in the country losing its voting rights in EU decision-making. Pressure on Budapest over Ukraine has been increasing in recent months; Belgium’s call could be seen as part of this effort.